Up-to-date job vacancy figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) are another economic data point likely to frustrate the Reserve Bank in its considerations of inflation, demand, employment, and interest rates.
The vacancy figures come a week after the August labour force data, which was much stronger than expected, showing only a slight sign of cooling in the demand for labour. This is particularly notable given a second consecutive strong month in hours worked, despite all 47,000 new jobs in August being part-time, a trend that should have led to a decline in hours worked.
The latest job vacancy figures for the three months to August present a similar challenge for the central bank.
The ABS data shows that, while the demand for labour has cooled over the past two years, job vacancies remain well above pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels from 2019.
In the language of economists and central banks, vacancies remain "elevated" compared to the so-called "normality" before the pandemic disrupted the global economy, compounded by Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
On Thursday, the ABS reported that the number of job vacancies fell to 330,000 in August 2024, down by 18,000 from the previous three months ending in May. This represents a 5.2% decline, accelerating from the 3.5% drop in the May quarter.
This marks the ninth consecutive quarterly decline in vacancies, with the number of unfilled positions now 30% below the peak of 473,000 in May 2022.
However, the ABS noted that this figure is still 102,000 jobs—or 14%—higher than pre-pandemic levels.
Looking deeper into the data, there are still vacancies emerging, despite declines in 11 of the 18 major industries tracked by the ABS.
The largest quarterly percentage declines were in Accommodation and Food Services (-17.2%) and Manufacturing (-9.9%), while the strongest increases were seen in Transport, Postal and Warehousing (14.9%) and Arts and Recreation Services (7.1%).
However, despite the quarterly growth in August, job vacancies in both industries remained lower than a year ago, according to the ABS.
“Annual drops in job vacancies were recorded in all industries except Rental, Hiring, and Real Estate Services, where vacancies increased slightly by 0.2% compared to August 2023,” ABS Head of Labour Statistics, David Taylor, said in Thursday’s release.
“Job vacancies remain higher than their pre-pandemic levels in all but four of the 18 industries: Administrative and Support Services, Financial and Insurance Services, Wholesale Trade, and Information Media and Telecommunications."
“Vacancies in some industries, most notably Arts and Recreation Services and Accommodation and Food Services, are still more than double their pre-pandemic levels.”
Job vacancies fell in both the public (-7.5%) and private (-4.9%) sectors during the quarter ending in August 2024. Similarly, most states and territories saw a decline in vacancies.
South Australia recorded the largest percentage fall (-9.0%), followed by the Northern Territory (-6.4%). The only state to record an increase was Queensland (0.9%).
