China’s commodity imports were surprisingly strong in September, despite the overall weakness in inbound shipments and the sharp softening in export growth.
In fact, iron ore imports hit a 2024 high, copper jumped sharply and coal (thermal coal mostly) topped previous all-time highs.
Oil imports were the only marked weakness as demand softens and the likes of S&P Global warns that the country’s peak oil demand is almost here.
Imports last month totalled 104.13 million tonnes, according to China's General Administration of Customs.
The volume last month compared with 101.39 million tonnes in August and 101.18 million tonnes in the same month in 2023, and topped forecasts of between 98 million and 103 million tonnes.
That pushed imports over the first 9 months of 2024 up by 4.9% to 918.87 million tonnes. That means if imports continue at 100 million tonnes a month for the rest of the year, the total will easily top 1.2 billion tonnes and go close to being a new high.
Low prices and a slow strengthening in demand for steel in the final weeks of the month helped keep iron ore imports buoyant. In fact iron ore prices spent nearly all of the month under US$100 a tonne for 62% Fe fines.
The surging pace of coal imports continued, even though power supplies have been impacted by a bounce back in hydro power supplies. Heavy rain in Sichuan and central China has replenished storage dams.
September shipments totalled 47.59 million tonnes, up 13% from a year earlier.
The figure surpassed the previous record of 47.29 million tonnes reached in December 2023.
Imports breaking a record in an off-peak season for coal consumption took market watchers by surprise and led some to suggest that Chinese power and heat utilities had brought more coal than needed because of a fall in prices in the month.
Newcastle coal prices, an Asian benchmark, fell through most of September to as low as US$136.46 per tonne in late September. That was down by 7% from August's high of US$147.13 per tonne, making imported coal more attractive relative to domestic supply.
Imports over the 9 months to September are up 11.9% at 389 million tonnes and on track to top half a billion tonnes for the first time ever.
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China's copper metal imports rose in September from August thanks to improving seasonal demand and consumption outlook for the metal.
Imports of unwrought copper and products totalled 479,000 tonnes last month, up 15.4% from August.
For the first nine months of the year, copper imports were up 2.6% at 4.09 million tonnes, the Customs data showed.
Imports of copper concentrate last month ended at 2.44 million tonnes, up 8.9% from a year earlier.
Copper concentrate imports totalled 21.06 million tonnes for the first nine months, up 3.7% from a year earlier.
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China’s weakening demand for oil continued, with oil imports down in September by 0.6% from a year earlier.
The world’s largest crude oil importer brought in 45.49 million tonnes in September, or about 11.07 million barrels per day (bpd), data from the General Administration of Customs showed.
This was the fifth straight month that shipments were less than the year before, with imports in September 2023 at 11.13 million bpd. They also declined from the 11.56 million bpd daily rate in August.
Year-to-date imports totalled 412.39 million tonnes, or 10.99 million bpd, down 2.8% from the first 9 months of 2023.
Reuters pointed out that imports declined even as China’s newest refiner Shandong Yulong Petrochemical started up one of its two 200,000 bpd crude units in late September.
A growing influence is the rise in sales of electrified vehicles, especially battery powered EVs.
Monday’s customs data also showed China’s natural gas imports last month jumped 18.1% from a year earlier to 11.99 million tonnes, bringing year-to-date purchases to 99.08 million tonnes, or 13% higher than year-earlier levels.
