The Economy: Confidence Up

By Glenn Dyer | More Articles by Glenn Dyer

And, after a couple of weak months, consumer confidence has rebound strongly in July.

The Westpac–Melbourne Institute Consumer sentiment index posted its strongest monthly jump since June of last year with the biggest increase from the 100-point level since records began in the mid-1970s, Westpac said.

The ending of the resource tax brawl and the emergence of Julia Gillard as Prime Minister, seem to have been the main factors in the improvement.

But the Reserve Bank has sat on interest rates for two months now and the stockmarket is doing better and the headlines are not as alarmist.

And the economy continues to create more jobs.

Business confidence and conditions were mixed, according to the July business survey issued by the National Australia Bank on Tuesday.

The index jumped 11.1 in July to 113.1 from 101.9 as Australians focused on the strong jobs market and the resilience of the economy in the face of slowdown fears for the world’s economy.

In a statement, Westpac chief economist, Bill Evans expressed surprise at the size of the rise.

"We were surprised at the vigour of the bounce back.

"We saw a comparable surge in confidence in 2009 when households realised that Australia had avoided recession but at that time the Index was recovering from a much lower level.

”Since the last survey the RBA has held rates steady for a second consecutive month and the dispute over the mining tax has been largely settled,” said Dr Evans. ”Global financial markets have also recovered somewhat.”

Dr Evans said that households have also been encouraged by a strong jobs market, which created 46,000 jobs in June.

Retail sales and building approvals have been weak. 

But a better indicator may have been the continuing high levels of new car sales, which hit an all time high in June.

Another indicator pointing to a stronger economy is the federal government’s skilled vacancies index.

It rose by 0.3% in July compared to a month earlier, to 46.4 points, 22.7% higher than in July of last year.

The department’s internet vacancy index rose 0.9% for the month of June to 80.3 points, to be 11.5% higher than in June 2009.

Vacancies in July fell in two of the three occupational groups monitored by the department.

Trades were up 1% but associate professionals were down 1.4% and professionals fell by 1.1%.

Increases were recorded in advertised vacancies for seven of the 18 skilled occupations monitored.

Over the year, Western Australia recorded the largest increase in vacancies, up 56.6% (but down in the month).

Queensland was the only state to record a fall over the year, a fall of 29.6%.

About Glenn Dyer

Glenn Dyer has been a finance journalist and TV producer for more than 40 years. He has worked at Maxwell Newton Publications, Queensland Newspapers, AAP, The Australian Financial Review, The Nine Network and Crikey.

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