A big, week for the US, China, Australia and in fact, for the global economic recovery.
A series of meetings, data and decisions will do much to confirm that the recovery remains alive, but fragile, or in the case of the US, dying, as Friday’s jobs figures for July indicated.
In Australia we get a string of profits, some data on confidence, the July jobs numbers and the monthly Chinese economic figures which will tell us if our most vital market is still cooling to a sustainable level of growth, or tipping lower faster than comfortable.
So let’s look at the major announcements and statistics expected around the globe this week.
In the US, the Fed Reserve won’t touch interest rates which will remain at their current record lows for an "extended period" of time.
The Fed’s Open Market Committee meets in a one-day summer session Tuesday night, our time, with the post meeting statement due at 4.15 am Wednesday.
But the Fed is expected to debate whether it will step up so-called quantitative easing in the face of the “unusual uncertainty” (chairman, Ben Bernanke’s’ description last month) regarding the economic outlook.
In fact some reports in the US this morning suggest the Fed may change the wording of its post meeting statement to tell the market of its heightened concerns for the economy.
The AMP’s chief economist Dr Shane Oliver says the "odds are that it probably won’t as not much has changed since its last meeting" but US economists say an increasingly public debate inside the Fed (via articles and briefed and backgrounded stories), could see something emerge in the post meeting statement, especially on helping the sliding housing sector.
Figures from the Fed on consumer credit for June will confirm the US consumer is still cutting back spending on cars, or having it reduced by hard-nosed banks and credit providers.
On top of the Fed meeting we will also see producer and consumer price inflation data, retail sales and the trade balance will also be released.
Inflation will not frighten anyone on the upside, but could contain more warnings about the emerging deflationary trend in a growing number of sectors.
Retail sales will be the figures to watch.
July is a big back to school month in the US and same store sales for July for a group of leading chains were solid last week, but a bit less than what was expected.
US retail sales have been weak through the northern spring and summer so far, so another poor set of figures will see even greater concerns expressed about the direction of the US economy.
Coincidentally, we will see a clutch of second quarter reports from leading retailers this week which will add to the impact of the monthly sales data.
Major retailers including Macy’s, JC Penney Co Inc and Nordstrom are due to report this week.
Some supermarket chains have already revealed tough trading conditions for food and other groceries.
Chinese economic data for July will be watched closely, with industrial production, house prices, car sales and fixed asset investment likely to show a further modest slowing in momentum.
The figures will be mostly out between today and Wednesday, when the major released of data is expected in Beijing.
Retail sales growth likely to remain strong and inflation likely to rise to around 3.4% from 2.9% on the back of the flood-driven rise in food prices.
Monthly trade data, especially imports of iron ore, copper and oil, will tell us how demand is travelling in China for steel, power and transport.
They will also tell us how strong demand remains in China for iron ore and coal.
We also have interest rate decisions from the Bank of Japan and the Bank of South Korea, while updated industrial production figures for Japan for June are expected as well.
In Australia, the July labour market report on Thursday is the big release of the week.
Dr Oliver says it is likely to show a further gain in employment of around 25,000 jobs, pushing the unemployment rate down to 5% from 5.1% in June.
The monthly ANZ jobs ads data is out today.
The National Australia Bank’s business confidence survey for July is out tomorrow and should show some sort of a bounce after the settling of the resources tax issue, but there could be an offset from the calling of the federal election.
The monthly survey of consumer confidence is out Wednesday and is likely to remain solid, but housing finance data for June will likely remain soft.
We also get the first really big week of the June half profit reporting season.
Key releases will come from JB Hi-Fi (which is about the only major retailer not to upgrade us on sales performance in the year). It reports this morning.
Results will also come from Bendigo and Adelaide Bank, Cochlear, Commonwealth Bank, Bradken, Stockland, Qantas, Transurban, Coca Cola Amatil (interim), radio group, Austero, Alumina, Computershare and Telstra.
The NAB releases its third quarter trading update tomorrow and hopefully we will have a resolution this week on the NAB bid for AXA Asia Pacific.
Telstra’s report on Thursday will be overshadowed by the state of the election campaign.
If the Opposition wins the election, the NBN deal is off and the company faces months of uncertainty and more pressure on revenues and sales from the declining copper wire business that is due to be sold to the NBN.
Federal treasurer Wayne Swan and opposition treasury spokesman Joe Hockey debat
