The Australian trade surplus narrowed in December, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
The balance of goods and services was a surplus of $1.981 billion in December, seasonally adjusted, from an upwardly revised surplus of $2.078 billion (originally reported as $1.925 billion) in November.
Economists’ forecasts had been for a surplus of around $1.6 billion in the month as they factored in some impact of flooding in central Queensland in the month.
During the month, exports were flat in adjusted terms, while imports were up 1%.
December’s trade surplus was the smallest in five months and may shrink further in coming months as the effects of floods and cyclones in Queensland get tallied.
The ABS pointed out that "Flooding in Queensland began in late December 2010. Data collection and processing for the data in this publication were not disrupted.
"It is expected that the first significant economic impact of floods in Queensland and other states will be reflected in the forthcoming issues of this publication."
But it did not say if reporting from exporters had indicated an impact from floods, especially some Central Queensland coal exporters who reported trouble and cut production guidance in December (such as the Curragh mine of Wesfarmers).
The ABS pointed out that "The sum of seasonally adjusted balances for the three months to December 2010 was a surplus of $6,648m, an increase of $648m on the surplus of $6,000m for the three months to September 2010".
"However, if seasonal factors used in compiling the quarterly balance of payments are applied, the December quarter 2010 surplus was $6,756m, an increase of $726m on the revised September quarter surplus of $6,030m," the Bureau said.
It will publish more accurate figures in its December quarter balance of payments data on March 1, the day before the December quarter national accounts are published.
Exports: "In seasonally adjusted terms, exports rose $85m to $24,579m. Non-rural goods rose $227m (1%), rural goods rose $21m (1%) and net exports of goods under merchanting rose $1m (25%).
Non-monetary gold fell $118m (10%). Services credits fell $46m (1%)," the ABS said.
It also pointed out that iron ore and coal exports in the month were impacted by:
Iron ore (lump) rose $172m (14%) with exports to Japan up $116m (50%) and China up $58m (8%), driven by increases in volumes of 52% and 5% respectively
Iron ore (fines) rose $439m (14%) with exports to China up $276m (11%) and Japan up $105m (27%), driven by increases in volumes of 10% and 23% respectively
Hard coking coal fell $99m (5%) with exports to Japan down $70m (14%) driven by a decrease in volume (12%)
Semi-soft coal rose $39m (6%) with exports to China up $62m, driven by an increase in volume (83%). This was partly offset by a fall in exports to Japan down $43m (15%)
Bituminous (thermal) coal rose $170m (17%) with exports to Japan up $74m (14%) and China up $65m (52%), driven by increases in volumes of 11% and 48% respectively.
The ABS said iron ore exports continue to boom, reaching $28 billion in the six months to December, compared with $35 billion for all of 2009-10.
It’s possible the value of iron ore exports could hit $50 billion in the year to June, 2011.
Imports: The ABS said that in seasonally adjusted terms, imports rose $182m (1%) to $22,598m. Intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $643m (8%).
Non-monetary gold fell $201m (34%), capital goods fell $155m (4%) and consumption goods fell $49m (1%). Services debits fell $57m (1%).
The ABS also said that based on its preliminary analysis, in seasonally adjusted terms, import volumes increased 2.9% during the December quarter 2010 and the implicit price deflator fell 4.2%.
It will have a more accurate impact and an estimate of the balance of payments on the growth figures in the March 1 statement.
