The Economy: Job Ads Slow, But Still Positive

By Glenn Dyer | More Articles by Glenn Dyer

 

According to the latest ANZ job ads survey, the Australian labour market remains solid.

A separate report on internet job ads from the Advantage recruiting group showed a sharp rise last month as well.

The two reports came ahead of Thursday’s labour market data for February with most forecasts tipping 20,000 new jobs and an unemployment rate of a steady 5%.

The ANZ is looking for 28,000 new jobs in Thursday’s report.

The ANZ said yesterday that job advertisements rose for the 10th month in a row in February, helped in part by a surge in newspaper job ads in Queensland, thanks to the clean-up efforts following the January floods.

The number of jobs advertised rose 1.2% last month, down from the 3.0% (2.4% originally reported) rise in January.

The total number of job ads was 19.3% above the February 2010 figure at 193,555 a week.

"While advertising continues to strengthen, the total number of job ads remains 31.3% below the all-time peak achieved in April 2008. Coupled with a slightly higher unemployment rate, this suggests the labour market is not as tight as it was three years ago," the ANZ said.

Newspaper jobs rose 4.4% while internet jobs increased 1.0% in the month.

But at 10,620, seasonally adjusted, newspaper ads were still 3.7% down on a year ago, while internet ads were up 20.8% on February 2010.

“While part of the large rise in February likely reflects a catch-up from deferred January advertising, the rise is significant enough to raise the possibility that there has been an increase in labour demand over and above the pre-existing trend due to activities associated with clean up and repairs after the recent floods,” said Ivan Colhoun Head of Australian Economics and Property Research at ANZ said in the statement accompanying the report.

In Queensland, newspaper job ads rose 30.5% in the month, reversing a significant decline the month before in the wake of flooding and cyclone Yasi.

"Last month, we noted a significant drop in Queensland newspaper advertising in the week ending the 16th of January," Mr Colhoun said.

"The (February) rise is significant enough to raise the possibility that there has been an increase in labour demand over and above the pre-existing trend due to activities associated with clean up and repairs after the recent floods.

"March data will provide a clearer indication as to the extent of this increase in demand."

ANZ estimates the effect of the Queensland floods reduced national job advertisements by around three-quarters of a percentage point in January.

Newspaper job ads rose 1.5% in NSW, 1.9% in Victoria and 12.5% in the ACT.

However, they fell 5.4% in Northern Territory, 1.5% in Western Australia, 2.2% South Australia and were down 2.5% in Tasmania.

 


 

And the Advantage Job Index showed a 6.08% rise in February, which was the largest increase in online job ads since December 2007 (and is at odds with the 1% rise in the ANZ internet series).

Advantage said increases were recorded across the board.

Almost all industry sectors and every state recorded an increase with the ACT (15.33%), Queensland (8.25%), New South Wales (6.44%) and West Australia (6.1%) ahead of the national average and Victoria (4.9%), South Australia (4.4%) and Tasmania (1.4%) also recording a rise.   

“We haven’t seen a national increase this large for over three years,” says Bob Olivier, Director, Global Market Intelligence, Advantage Resourcing, “and in the 11 years we have been compiling the monthly Advantage Job Index it has only risen this much six times so this is a very significant indication that the Australian job market is returning to full strength for 2011".  

“We were concerned with the declines experienced in December and January but these can be attributed to many factors including November’s rate rise, poor retail sales over Christmas and the natural disasters. February gives us a much clearer picture moving forward of employer confidence in a more stable environment.”

Advantage said that among the areas to see strong gains were transport (up 12.8%), administration (11.4%) and trades & services (10.2%).

About Glenn Dyer

Glenn Dyer has been a finance journalist and TV producer for more than 40 years. He has worked at Maxwell Newton Publications, Queensland Newspapers, AAP, The Australian Financial Review, The Nine Network and Crikey.

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