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Trade: Surprise Deficit In February

Australia has suffered a $1.63 billion-plus trade turnaround in February, thanks to a drop in processed gold exports and a big jump in imports of oil and related products.

As a result, the country’s trade balance slumped to a deficit of $205 million for the month, its first negative reading since March 2010.

Economists had tipped a surplus for the month of $1.1 to $1.2 billion.

Imports jumped 5% while exports dropped 2% and the Australian Bureau of Statistics also revised down January’s trade surplus to a seasonally adjusted $1.43 billion from an earlier reported $1.875 billion.

And it wasn’t a fall in coal exports that caused it, although thermal coal exports dropped $200 million in value in the month. That was much less than the near $800 million fall in January.

The big driver was a sharp fall in the export of non-monetary gold (that’s gold processed by the various refineries and mints) of more than $600 million.

The ABS said the exports fell $554 million (2%) to $22,843m.

"Non-monetary gold fell $688m (45%) and non-rural goods fell $253m (2%).

"Rural goods rose $275m (12%) and net exports of goods under merchanting remained steady. Services credits rose $112m (3%)."

Non-rural goods are the most important part of our exports and the ABS said that in seasonally adjusted terms, they were down $253m (2%) to $15,073m.

"The main component contributing to the fall in the seasonally adjusted estimates was metal ores and minerals, down $543m (8%).

"Partly offsetting this decrease were: metals (excl. non-monetary gold), up $167m (17%) other manufactures, up $101m (8%).

"On the import side the Bureau said that in seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits rose $1,084m (or 5%) to $23,048m.

"Intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $854m (12%), capital goods rose $92m (2%), non-monetary gold rose $53m (19%) and consumption goods rose $11m. Services debits rose $75m (2%)," the ABS said.

The big rise in intermediate goods was fuels and lubricants up $561 million, or 26% rise in the value of imports of fuels and lubricants after a $763 million (26%) fall in January.

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