The federal budget dominates this week, along with the April jobs report on Thursday and a scattering of other local data.
China’s April economic data, including the latest inflation figures, is perhaps the biggest bit of offshore news that could impact markets here.
But the reaction to the better than expected US jobs report for April and the weakness in commodity markets will also be watched closely.
In Europe growth data for the first quarter will be published, while in Japan we are expecting a reworked energy and growth policy to be released.
In The US we will get trade and some inflation data.
Here, Treasurer Wayne Swan will reveal the federal government’s budget for the 2011-12 financial year tomorrow night (see separate story).
Spending cuts across a variety of areas are expected as the government battles a drop in revenues and keeps to its promise to return the country to surplus in 2013-13.
In local economic news, today sees the release of the April jobs data from the ANZ.
Tomorrow, the Australian Bureau of Statistics will release trade balance data for the March and the March quarter.
Economists are tipping a surplus of around $1 billion as exports recover from February’s surprise deficit.
The National Australia Bank will publish both its business confidence index and business conditions index for April today instead of Tuesday as usual.
Thursday brings labour force data for April from the ABS. Some analysts forecast an increase of 25,000 in the month, while the jobless rate is tipped to remain at 4.9%.
But the AMP’s chief economist Dr Shane Oliver reckons only 5,000 new jobs will be created, but the jobless rate will remain at 4.9%.
Corporate news in Australia will be dominated by reaction to the budget and some interim earnings reports from CSR (Wednesday) and Incitec Pivot (today), while Singapore Telecom releases its third quarter figures for itself and local arm Optus (Thursday).
The Commonwealth Bank of Australia releases its third quarter trading update on Wednesday and David Jones is due to release its third quarter sales results the same day.
Ivanhoe Mines will release first quarter earnings results in Canada.
And the president of the uranium customer sector group at BHP Billiton Dean Dalla Valle will provide an update on the progress of the miner’s Olympic Dam project at an AMCHAM luncheon in Adelaide on Friday.
BHP’s chairman Jac Nasser speaks in Melbourne at lunchtime today.
There are quite a few companies holding either AGMs or EGMs this week with the AMP the most important on Thursday, thanks to its recent takeover of AXA Asia Pacific.
Other companies holding meetings this week include Australian Agricultural Company, GPT Group, Oil Search, ROC Oil, Gondwana Resources, Mirabela Nickel, Galaxy Resources, Boart Longyear, Minara Resources and China Yunnan Copper Australia.
As well, meetings are expected for Gujarat NRE Coking Coal, DSF International Holdings, Planet Metals, STW Communications Group, Beadell Resources, Eagle Nickel, Grange Resources, Hodges Resources, Phylogica, Commonwealth Bank of Australia third quarter trading update, David Jones third quarter sales update, Novogen, Transerv Energy, Australian Minerals & Mining Group, Health Corporation Ltd, Benitec, Eneabba Gas, Greenland Minerals & Energy, Millennium Minerals, Ambition Group, and Po Valley Energy.
The Seven Network vs. James Warburton legal battle in the NSW Supreme Court is expected to see a judgement on Thursday.
In the US trade data for April is likely to show another large deficit, but a rise in exports because of the weak dollar.
US retail sales for April due Thursday are expected to show modest gains thanks to the late Easter and April.
Inflation data on Thursday and Friday is expected to show upwards pressure on headline inflation from higher oil prices, but core inflation will remain relatively benign.
The two day US-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue will be held in Washington early in the week.
The US first quarter season continues and the tech giant Cisco and retailers Kohls, Nordstrom and Macy’s and Walt Disney Co are among the major companies reporting this week as the number of companies reporting declines.
According to Reuters, US earnings estimates have risen since the start of the reporting period.
March quarter profits for S&P 500 companies are now expected to be up 18% from the year before, up from an estimated 13% rise at the start of April.
Of the 438 S&P 500 companies that have reported so far, 69% have topped analyst earnings forecasts.
More attention than normal will be paid to the monthly crop report for May from the US Department of Agriculture after reports in February, March and April produced conflicting estimates on the corn, soybeans and wheat crops.
A raft of Chinese data is also due, covering trade, retail sales, production and inflation. That data will be released from today until Wednesday.
The AMP’s Dr Oliver reckons the April CPI will show a fall to 5.1% from 5.4% in the year to March.
In Europe, European Monetary Union gross domestic product data for the first quarter rounds is out on Thursday.
In Europe steel giant ArcelorMittal SA and German construction group Bilfinger Berger report earnings figures.
Possibly the most important corporate result internationally will come from Toyota.
It is struggling to recover from a spate of recalls and the impact
