Markets: Traders Play Safe In Their Confusion

By Glenn Dyer | More Articles by Glenn Dyer

Gold, silver, copper, oil and shares all had a mixed end to a mixed week on Friday night, our time.

The red ink wasn’t as widespread as in the previous week’s brutal sell-off, but there were a couple of days last week when plenty of investors would have felt a jolt as equities fell sharply, or commodities lurched lower.

Now everyone is wondering what lies ahead.

There were no clues from last week’s economic data, except that northern Europe (Germany and France) are probably booming compared to the rest of the continent and the US and Japan.

China is seeing a slowing trend continue, although the bank on diesel exports raises questions about inflationary pressures in coming months.

US shares had a second week of losses last week and now investors are wondering if a more significant move downwards is ahead (see story above).

The Dow ended down 100.17 points, or 0.8%, at 12,595.75. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index finished down 10.88 points, or 0.8%, at 1337.77 and the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 34.57 points, or 1.2%, at 2828.47.

For the week, the Dow was down 0.3%, the S&P 500 was off 0.2% and the Nasdaq was barely up at 0.03%.

In Australia SPI futures fell 35 points to 4678, indicating losses at the start of local sharemarket trade later this morning.

That was after the ASX200 index rose 15.3 points, or 0.3%, on Friday to 4,711.4.

The broader All Ordinaries index added 10.7 points, or 0.2%, to 4,787.3.

The Australian market lost 0.7% last week.

The dollar dropped nearly 1% to $US1.0573 in offshore trade on Friday.

The greenback rose 1% against the euro on Friday and is now trading around $US1.41, up 7 cents since the low a couple of weeks ago. 

It was the second weekly loss for the euro against the greenback and touched $US1.4067 in trading late last week, the lowest level since April 1.

In another sign of a shift in sentiment, leadership in the S&P 500 has moved from cyclical sectors like energy and basic materials to sectors with more stable growth like healthcare and utilities.

The S&P energy index was down 1.4% for the week, and is off 8.3% so far in May.

A big silver investment fund has plunged almost 27% so far this month.

Trading volumes remain low approaching the northern summer when they fall anyway. Volumes last week were 6.88 billion shares, down nearly a billion from this time a year ago.

In Europe, the good news on first quarter growth for the likes of Germany and France helped sentiment early, but the downturn in the euro saw the gloom return.

Most European stock markets made early gains Friday following losses Thursday, but ended the week down after the US markets had opened lower.

London’s FTSE 100 index ended the day off 0.3%, Germany’s DAX lost 0.5% and in Paris the CAC 40 eased 0.1% lower by the close.

London lost 0.9% over the week. The DAX lost 1.2%, and the CAC 40 lost 1.0%.

In Asia markets were mixed to slightly stronger on Friday with Australia higher; the Shanghai Composite rose 1%, the Hang Seng in Hong Kong added 0.9%, while Japan’s Nikkei fell 0.7%.

For the week Tokyo lost 2.1% in a bout of selling not helped by doubt on Friday about the future of $US24 billion in loans advanced to Tokyo Electric Power Company (owner of the crisis-hit Fukushima nuclear plant).

Australia shed just under 1%, Hong Kong around half a per cent. South Korea’s Kospi index dropped 1.3%.

The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index fell 1% last week after the 1.4% drop the week before.

Gold fell on Friday, sharply reversing early gains, as the strengthening US dollar hit confidence.

But oil finished the day higher in New York in a late surge and despite the dollar’s rise against the euro.

Silver continued to recover from the previous week’s big fall, but still ended the week a touch lower.

Spot gold fell 0.7% to $US1492.50 an ounce, having earlier risen as high as $US1516.40.

Comex June gold futures ended down $US13.20 at $US1493.60, after trading in a range from $US1482 to $US1516.40 an ounce.

And Comex July silver finished at $35.013 an ounce, down 0.7% for the week. Silver is still up 13% this year.

Gold was weak for most of Friday but managed to end the day up 0.1% for the week, after the previous week’s nervy 5% slump.

Comex July copper rose 1.3c, or 0.3%, to settle at $US3.98 a pound, up 0.2% for the week.

It is down 14% from the all time high of $US4.6575 a pound on February 15.

On the London Metal Exchange, three month copper edged up $US58, or 0.7%, to $US8,788 a metric tonne (or $US3.99 a pound).

Zinc also rose but aluminium, lead; nickel and tin were all weaker.

Oil rose on late Friday on short-covering, but nothing else to drive it higher.

London’s Brent crude ended up nearly $US5 on the week at $US113.83 a barrel, after dropping $US16 the previous week.

Nymex WTI crude rose 83c to $US99.65 a barrel.

New York raw sugar for July delivery rose 0.6% to 21.45 USc a pound in New York.

That was up 4.8% for the week and means the year’s fall is now back to 33%.

New York Arabica-coffee futures for July delivery fell 5.55c, or 2%, to $US2.694 a pound, off 6.3% for the week and the biggest fall for 

About Glenn Dyer

Glenn Dyer has been a finance journalist and TV producer for more than 40 years. He has worked at Maxwell Newton Publications, Queensland Newspapers, AAP, The Australian Financial Review, The Nine Network and Crikey.

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