The most important announcement for the Australian and global markets will be the second round of Chinese data for May due out later today.
Friday’s trade figures (see separate stories) brought mixed reactions from the China’s bears and bulls.
Today’s inflation figures (producer and consumer) will be the key, with some economists forecasting an annual rate in May of 5.6%, others 5.4%.
It was 5.3% in the year to April, which saw China’s central bank lift the reserve asset ratio for banks by another half a per cent to 21%.
The drought in parts of China’s grain and rice growing areas has boosted prices, along with higher seafood prices.
Along with continued strong growth in industrial production and fixed asset investment, some analysts see pressure continuing for a further monetary tightening.
However The AMP’s Dr Shane Oliver says, "non-food inflation is unlikely to have increased and with inflation likely to be at or close to peaking we remain of the view that China is near the end of its tightening cycle".
Certainly the two manufacturing surveys for May painted a better picture of China’s present position than did surveys for other economies.
In Australia, the National Australia Bank’s business survey for May is out today (not last Tuesday as reported last week) and is likely to show a slight softening in confidence reflecting the recent run of soft economic data locally and increased uncertainty regarding the global economy.
Lending finance figures are out later today from the Bureau of Statistics.
Consumer Sentiment is due Wednesday from Westpac and the Melbourne Institute and is also likely to be relatively subdued with poor news on jobs and the wider economy offsetting news that interest rates are still on hold for now.
Housing starts for the March quarter due Wednesday are likely to show further weakness.
Car sales for May are also out and will again be softer than a year ago because of the slump in car exports to Australia by Japanese companies such as Toyota, Subaru and Nissan.
But it will be a speech by RBA Governor Glenn Stevens on Wednesday that will attract the most attention for more clues on the interest rate front.
Dr Oliver says Mr Stevens "will likely say nothing more than that while the RBA retains an inclination to tighten at some point, for now it’s happy with current interest rate settings".
The RBA’s June quarter bulletin is out on Thursday.
In corporate events we will get an update from insurer IAG on Tuesday which will see more accurate figures given of losses from the floods and cyclones at the start of the year and the Christchurch earthquake in February, and yesterday’s series of rattlers as well.
Corporate meetings include Western Desert Resources, Mindoro Resources, Luiri Gold, Padbury Mining, Trojan Equity, Mintails Ltd, Global Nickel Investments, Refresh Group, Austin Exploration, Sherwin Iron Ltd, Drillsearch Energy, Orpheus Energy, and Westralian Gas and Power.
In the US it’s a much bigger week with a couple of key indicators likely to feed into the growing perception that the economy is weakening.
Retail sales for May tonight, producer and consumer inflation due later in the week, along with the monthly business surveys for the New York and Philadelphia regions (which are likely to show that manufacturing growth remains subdued, as they have been doing now for two months) and May housing starts and permits data which are out Thursday.
After several months of strong gains headline consumer price inflation data for May is likely to come in flat, reflecting the dampening impact of falls in gasoline prices. Producer prices will also be soft, according to many forecasts, as the rise in energy prices weakens.
Data for industrial production and leading economic indicators will also be released.
Elsewhere in Asia the Bank of Japan meets and announces its interest rate decision later today. No change is expected.
In the UK, the retail price index and consumer price index for May is due along with UK average earnings data for April.
And we will get trading updates from the newly listed commodity trader and investor Glencore (which is about to make a big takeover bid, according to media reports) and Tesco, Britain’s biggest retailer.
International Labour Organisation data for April will also be published.
