Once again it will be a very busy week here and offshore.
We have a long list of events and data including Australian profits, US economic growth, Fed chairman Ben Bernanke, stockmarket confidence and the appearance of RBA Governor, Glenn Stevens on Friday.
In the US Friday looms as the most important day, assuming there are no market-linked disasters before then.
First we have the second estimate of second quarter economic growth.
The first estimate nearly a month ago was an annual 1.3% (0.4% quarter on quarter), but the huge surprise was the revision to the first quarter estimate which was cut from 1.9% annual to just 0.4% (0.1% quarter on quarter).
Other cuts were made to the 4th quarter estimate for last year and back to 2003: the upshot being that the US economy still hasn’t regained the level it was in 2007 before the GFC started.
Later on Friday Fed chairman, Ben Bernanke speech at a central bankers’ conference in Jackson Hole.
Just as he did at last year’s conference, it’s likely that he could signal the Fed is considering further quantitative easing in view of the continuing weak US recovery.
Forecasters are not seeing any change in GDP in the second estimate, so technically the US economy has bounced back from the first quarter slump. But no one in the US is convinced that’s the case and various groups have cut economic growth predictions for the rest of the year to 1% (annual).
Data last week, especially on the health of the manufacturing sector, showed an economy in trouble and fading.
This week, in the lead up to Friday, there’s another flow of figures.
New home sales data (due tomorrow night, our time) were forecast to rise, but after last week’s surprise slide in sales of existing homes, many analysts are uncertain.
July durable goods orders (due Wednesday) are expected to be up, but again, after the two Fed surveys of regional manufacturing showed a very sharp fall in new orders in July, no one is certain.
US consumer sentiment figures are expected to confirm that confidence remains around 30 year lows.
In Europe, August business conditions surveys to show a further softening (due Wednesday).
Eurozone industrial production figures for July will also be issued and will not paint a rosy picture.
German investor confidence is due to be released tomorrow night.
Results will come from Glencore, the recently-listed commodities giant and major global brewer, Heineken.
In Asia key Japanese economic and inflation data will be released Friday and are expected to show a continuation of the rebound from the March 11 quake and tsunami.
In China major bank profits for the first half of this year will be released and the flash estimate from the HSBC-Markit survey of the country’s manufacturing sector will be out as well.
The Bank of Thailand is also due to announce a decision on local interest rates tomorrow.
In Australia, Friday will also be a big day, with RBA Governor Stevens’ appearance before the House of Representatives economics committee.
His comments will be watched closely to see whether the Bank is backing away from rate hikes.
Bond markets are signalling two to three rate cuts could happen, but much of that is due to the high level of demand for the high quality Australian government debt.
Earnings results again will dominate the week ahead, providing markets behave.
This is the peak week for June 30 reporters (the ASX 200 companies at least).
Blue chip stocks BHP Billiton, Qantas Airways, Foster’s and Woolworths are all set to reveal results to the market.
Elsewhere, BlueScope, Caltex Australia, Macarthur Coal, Seven West Media and Pacific Brands will report, along with Suncorp, Westfield, Virgin Blue, Fairfax, Perpetual and many others.
In local data, construction data and housing affordability figures are set for release.
Overseas, new home sales data is due in the US, along with jobless claims and highly anticipated gross domestic product data.
Reserve Bank governor Glenn Stevens will appear before a House of Representatives standing committee this week, while Federal Reserve governor Ben Bernanke will make a highly anticipated address in the US.
Tomorrow, Reserve Bank of Australia deputy governor Ric Battellino will deliver a speech as part of The Economist magazine’s Bellwether speaking series in Sydney.
Federal government financial estimates data are due Tuesday for the 2012 financial year.
Wednesday sees June construction data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, while Thursday sees the release of the Housing Industry Association’s affordability index for the second quarter.
Today’s BlueScope steel update looms as big news, with the company expected to report a loss and reveal the details of its review of steelmaking at Port Kembla.
Treasury Wine Estates, the Foster’s spin off, reports (Foster’s reports tomorrow with the SAB Miller $4.90 a share hostile bid hanging over its head).
Other June 30 results today will include Amcor, Challenger, Tassal Group and miner Western Areas.
Caltex Australia will releases interim results.
Tomorrow Foster’s Group will announce annual earnings.
Its final dividend payment will be of considerable interest seeing SAB Miller has said it will cut the $4.90 offer price by the amount of that payment.
Consolidated Media Holdings, Origin Energy, Flight Centre, Mirvac Group, SEEK, Sonic Healthcare and Whitehaven Coal results, Monadelpheous, Hills Group, are also expected to report.
Oil Search is do
