Rain in Western Australia has offset an emerging dry in eastern areas of the country, enabling the 2011-12 wheat crop estimate to be maintained at close to record levels.
The latest monthly crop report from the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Science (ABARES) puts the harvest at 26.2 million tonnes, a touch down on last year’s record level of 26.3 million tonnes, which was achieved despite drought in much of WA.
WA will plant around 5.1 million hectares of wheat this season and is expected to regain its position as the number one producing state.
The Bureau said Australian exports could reach 20.4 million tonnes in the 12 months starting October 1.
That’s 1.5% above the June forecast and more than 9% higher than the previous year.
The news is good for Australia’s largest listed grain related stock, Graincorp.
Graincorp shares fell 8c to $7.84 yesterday.
The United States Department of Agriculture suggests that Australia could be the second biggest wheat exporting country in the next year after the US because of an expected fall in shipments from the European Union.
The USDA has forecast a 30% fall in EU wheat exports to 16 million tonnes.
World wheat prices are up 19% since July 1 when the Russian ban on exports ended. They jumped 11% in August alone, despite the volatility in other markets.
But they dropped nearly 6% last week and traded around $US7.29 a bushel in Chicago on Monday.
ABARES lifted its total winter crop production forecast to 41 million tonnes in 2011-12, the fourth-largest on record and an upward revision from the June forecast of 40.8 million tonnes.
ABARES said that the coming cotton harvest could reach a record 1.1 million tonnes, which would be up 23% from last year’s 900,000 tonnes.
Among other crops, barley production is forecast to fall by 11% to 8.3 million tonnes while canola production is forecast to increase by 7% to 2.3 million tonnes.
ABARES said "Improved seasonal conditions have resulted in an upward revision for Western Australia, South Australia and Victoria.
"However, there has been a downward revision for Queensland and New South Wales, following below average winter rainfall.
"The total area sown to winter crops is estimated to have increased by 3 per cent in 2011–12 to 22.6 million hectares."
And it said the total summer crop area is forecast to remain largely unchanged in 2011–12 at around 1.5 million hectares.
"Below average winter rainfall in key growing regions of northern New South Wales and southern Queensland coupled with high cotton prices are forecast to result in a decrease in the area planted to grain sorghum.
"However, an increase in the availability of irrigation water is forecast to result in an increase in the area planted to cotton and rice.
"Total summer crop production is forecast to increase by 2 per cent to around 4.8 million tonnes.
"Growing conditions over winter were generally favourable in the major winter cropping regions and crops are generally reported to be in good condition.
"Rainfall in late August and early September replenished soil moisture profiles and provided a good boost to crops in most regions.
"Winter rainfall over Western Australia’s cropping regions has resulted in a marked turnaround from last season’s dry conditions.
"From 25 to 100 millimetres of rain was recorded in each of the winter months and boosted yield prospects, with crops looking promising across the state’s cropping zone.
"Winter cropping regions in South Australia and most of Victoria recorded good winter rainfall and crops look promising in these regions as well.
"Conversely, southern Queensland and northern New South Wales received below average rainfall over the same period and will need further rain in the next few weeks to achieve average yields.
"Looking ahead, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology’s latest seasonal rainfall outlook (25 August 2011) favours a wetter than normal spring across the cropping regions in Western Australia, Queensland and northern New South Wales.
"For the latter two regions, this will be important for the upcoming planting of summer crops.
"For southern New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia, there is a less than even chance of exceeding median rainfall over spring."
