A big week ahead for economic data here and offshore, the end of our December interim and full year profit reports, plus the second long term financing operation from the European Central Bank (ECB) for Europe’s banks.
Before all of that, we have this morning’s ALP Leadership vote between Prime Minister Julia Gillard and recently-departed Foreign Minister Kevin Rudd. Blood sport isn’t a nice look.
Higher oil prices have moved to centre stage, along with the rising cost of petrol.
That could be bad news for retailers and media companies if sustained.
The big global events will be that ECB announcement on Wednesday night, our time, and the flow of surveys of manufacturing activity Thursday and Thursday night, our time, starting with Australia, then China and the rest of Asia, Europe and finishing in the US.
Australia’s performance of manufacturing survey on Wednesday will be of interest seeing there has been a steady improvement in the sector’s activity since late last year, despite the strong Australian dollar.
January’s PMI showed a clear move into an expansion phase and the business surveys have picked up on improvement conditions and confidence in the sector.
We get the start of the December quarter economic growth figures this week with the important construction work and private investment figures on Wednesday and Thursday respectively.
The December quarter GDP numbers are out Wednesday week, a day after the RBA board meets and sits on interest rates.
We will also get the private lending figures from the RBA for January on Wednesday and the Commodity Price Index on Thursday (also for January).
January’s figures for retail sales, house prices and building approvals to be soft to slightly stronger.
The December quarter business investment figures on Thursday and the construction work data on Wednesday for the same quarter, will both again remind us of the strength of the resources boom and how it’s not really going away.
The December half reporting season will wrap up with 25 major companies due to report led by Woolworths on Thursday.
The result will be compared with that from Coles and some of its other chains: the comparison won’t make good reading for Woolies shareholders.
Woolies will report a lower profit after significant items dominated by the $300 million write-down in the value of the Dick Smith chain of consumer electronics stores.
Its underlying retailing results won’t be as strong as they have been in the past either.
Harvey Norman also reports its interim figures which will be lower.
Regional TV businesses, Southern Cross Media (which also owns two major metro radio networks) and Prime Media report this week.
Southern Cross is the regional affiliate of the struggling Ten Network, Prime is the regional link for the dominant Seven Network.
Southern Cross’s metro radio businesses (the old Austero) will save the company from a poor result.
Prime should show the benefits of rebroadcasting Seven’s popular programs.
Insurer, QBE releases its 12 month numbers which are expected show a fall of around 50%. Aristocrat Leisure will also report its full year figures.
Lynas Corporation also reports interim figures, while James Hardie reveals third quarter figures.
Caltex Australia will reveal full year figures, expect a loss. Will the company take the $1.5 billion write-down of its two Australian oil refineries into the 2011 results?
Beach Energy also releases first half results. Its commentary about its evolving tight gas drilling campaign in the Cooper Basin will be watched for by analysts.
Hastie Group also releases its first half results. The company nearly collapsed last year and was brought back to life after a fund raising and capital injection.
While there have been some bright spots, overall the results are soft with companies suffering from soft revenue growth, sticky costs and pressure from the strong $A.
Only 31% of companies have exceeded expectations, versus 37% in the June half results and a norm of 45%. 68% of companies have reported positive year on year profit growth. (See above graph).
But investors have greeted results cautiously with 52% of companies seeing their share prices under perform the market on the day results were released.
The absence of much upside surpri
