Another big data week for Australia, and a number of other economies offshore with the monthly surveys of manufacturing and then services, a couple of central bank meetings, and to cap off the week, the all important US jobs report on Friday night – this time its for March.
It will be a busy week all round, but not in the corporate area where the first quarter figures from the US won’t start appearing for 10 days or so.
In Australia, it’s the monthly Reserve Bank meeting and some major data releases.
The RBA is expected to leave rates on hold for another month.
What will be interesting is whether the recent rise in the value of the Aussie dollar forces a change of language from the RBA board and Mr Stevens in either his post meeting statement tomorrow or a speech he’s due to make later in the week.
Also remember it’s the end of the month and the end of the first quarter tonight our time.
And it’s the end of the first half of the 2013-14 year for some of the most important stocks on the ASX – banks such as Westpac, NAB, ANZ and the smaller Bank of Queensland.
The RBA also releases the private credit figures for February later this morning.
Its index of commodity prices will be released tomorrow afternoon.
Economists reckon there could be a 1% fall in February building approvals when they are released on Wednesday, there could be a slight slowing in the growth rate in retail sales (Thursday) and the trade account might fall short (also Thursday).
Data on the performance of manufacturing last month is out later this morning, as well as new home sales for March, house prices for last month and a private measure of inflation and job vacancies are all due for release this week. The survey of services is out later in the week.
They will update us on whether the key areas of household spending, building construction and finance, and exports (the three areas we hope will support the economy through the transition from the huge mining investment boom).
All three showed solid growth in the January report, though the impact of the dip in iron ore prices and the rise in the dollar might take the edge off exports, along with the effects of the Chinese Lunar New Year at the start of the month. For that reason the figures will be skewed and difficult to compare.
Car sales data for last month will also be out mid week.
RBA Governor Stevens is due to make his second major speech in a week on Thursday when he is likely to repeat the message he gave in his speech in Hong Kong last Wednesday – that the economy appears to be making the transition from the huge investment boom.
Watch also for possible comments on the current value of the Aussie dollar – if it doesn’t slide from the four month highs reached Friday and Friday night, our time.
In the corporate area, watch for a statement today or tomorrow from Rio Tinto on possible delays to the financing of the $US6.2 billion underground phase of its huge Oyu Tolgoi copper mine in Mongolia.
There’s a financing deadline that expires tonight and Rio subsidiary Turquoise Hill said last week it could be another four months before agreement is reached.
Rio has said in the past it may have to take a write-down of close fo $US900 million if the deadline is missed.
Elsewhere in the corporate sector, QBE Insurance Group will hold its annual general meeting on Wednesday.
And also watch for a statement from Woodside Petroleum today or tomorrow on the future of its involvement in a huge gas project in Israel.
Like Rio it seems to have missed an important deadline, this one was to agree to a $US2.7 billion ($2.92 billion) deal for a 25% stake in the Leviathan gas project in Israel.
Woodside was to make a $US850 million up-front payment, but Israeli media reports suggest the company has yet to agree on terms with the Israeli government.
In the US, the AMP’s Dr Shane Oliver says we should expect the ISM manufacturing conditions index (Tuesday night, our time) to have improved slightly in the past month.
He says there should also be improvement in the ISM services index (Thursday) and a further pick up in jobs growth (Friday night, our time).
Dr Oliver is looking for around 200,000 new jobs, and a fall in the unemployment rate to 6.6%.
US car sales data for last month will be released Tuesday night, our time. The US trade data for February is also due out on Friday.
US Fed Chair, Janet Yellen speaks tonight (our time) and is likely to try and ‘clarify’ her comments at the post Fed meeting press conference about the timing of the next rate rise in the US.
She suggested there could be a six month delay between the end of quantitative easing and the first rate hike. Now analysts say she could now suggest the gap could to be “at least” six months.
In Canada, another update for 4th quarter GDP is due for release, as well as producer prices, while March’s labour market data will be updated on Friday night, our time.
Offshore in Europe, the European Central Bank is due to meet, while the first of monthly surveys of manufacturing and services are also down for release – with the data on Germany, France, Spain and the UK of major concern for the markets, along with consumer and producer inflation for last month later in the week.
In fact the inflation data will dominate given the rising fear of deflation. Tonight will probably confirm a small fall in the rate of consumer inflation to an annual rate of 0.6% from 0.7% – which is a long way from the 2% target of the ECB.
Inflation in Spain fell last month, while in Germany it slowed noticeably, according to data released Friday night, which triggered another bout of concern about the rising prospect for deflation in the eurozone.
For that reason action from Thursday night’s meeting (our time) of the ECB to try and offset these deflationary can’t be ruled out.
Final GDP figures for the 4th quarter are due out from France. And the latest retail trade data for the eurozone will be out midweek.
In Asia, the week will be dominated by the surveys of manufacturing activity and services for China – both the government report and the update from HSBC/ Markit.
In China, the official manufacturing PMI (tomorrow) is expected to follow the HSBC/Market figure flash PMI lower.
The final report from HSBC/ Markit could fall a bit more than last week’s flash report, according to some forecasts.
The AMP’s Dr Shane Oliver says the index will only fall to around 50 (from 50.2) given its focus on larger manufacturers.
"The later timing of this survey means that it may have seen more of a pick-up in industrial production following the Chinese New Year break," he wrote at the weekend.
In Japan the country’s consumption tax rises from 5% to 8% from Tuesday, which will hit market confidence for a while.
As well, Tuesday also sees the release of the quarterly Tankan survey of business confidence and investment plans by the Bank of Japan. It is expected to be quite positive as the impact of the reflationary moves by the central bank and the government kick in.
But watch for negativity around the impact of the increase in the company’s value added tax.
As well, February industrial production (Monday) is expected to have slowed a bit after a huge surge in January.
Friday’s data showed a small rise in inflation, but a big drop in retail sales in February.
Figures for Japanese construction and housing starts are also due for release later today.
