It’s going to be a big, big week for economic data and central bank decisions from Australia, Asia, Europe and the US.
This week we will see a mixture of interest rates, growth, retail sales, building approvals and trade in Australia, US jobs data for February and a host of other figures from the US, manufacturing activity updates for China, the rest of Asia, Europe and the US, and central bank meetings in Europe, Canada and the UK, as well as India.
Coming as equity markets, especially in Europe and Australia, boom like they haven’t boomed for years, the flow of decisions and data this week could very well push prices higher.
China’s surprise second rate cut at the weekend and yesterday’s weak data for the manufacturing sector, will put renewed focus on the performance of our largest export market.
As well we get (finally) the official 2015 growth rate (7%) from the government when the country’s parliament meets and a speech on March 5 from
And from Europe we get early estimates of inflation/deflation for the eurozone for January, plus a first read on unemployment for the same month.
In Australia the week will be dominated by the results of tomorrow’s Reserve Bank board meeting on interest rates, and Wednesday’s 4th quarter GDP data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).
The markets reckon there’s a good chance the RBA will cut rates again tomorrow, and market forecasts estimate the economy will have grown by 0.5% in the three months to December, or 2.6% over the year.
But there are other reports out as well – later today the December quarter business indicators are issued by the ABS.
These include sales, inventories, profits, wages and salaries. As well, data on inflation (a private survey), house prices and the monthly survey of manufacturing activity, are all due for release. And we will also get industry figures on new home sales for January.
The RBA meeting dominates Tuesday, but we also will get the full balance of payments data ahead of the GDP release tomorrow, along with government finance statistics (both for the December quarter). Building approvals figures for January will also be issued.
Wednesday sees the national accounts for the December quarter issued. Watch for key indicators (besides growth) on inflation, the terms of trade (down around 10%), the savings ratio (down under 9%), productivity and some of the constituents of growth such as final private demand (which tells us how the domestic economy is travelling).
Industry figures for new car sales last month are also due for release on Wednesday.
Thursday sees the January trade data and retail sales figures released by the ABS.
In the US, the week will be overshadowed by the usual end of week release of the previous month’s jobs data and revisions to previous month’s figures. More than 250,000 new jobs and an unemployment rate of 5.6% is the early forecast.
Tonight sees the start of US January economic figures, with the release of the monthly survey of manufacturing activity as well as data on personal income and spending (and the US Fed’s favourite inflation figures). January constriction data is also due for release.
Tomorrow night sees the release of figures for new new car sales for January, as well as the monthly manufacturing survey for the New York area.
On Wednesday night, our time, the Fed releases the Beige Book ahead of the March meeting of the central bank – it will be scanned for anecdotal evidence of the impact of weak oil prices on economic activity. Also on Wednesday the usual weekly data on home purchases and refinancings will be released.
As well, the weekly reports on oil production and stocks from the Industry and the Energy information Agency will be released. Anxious analysts will be looking for signs of weakness in both, with big hopes for a fall.
On Thursday the January data on US factory orders is issued together with revised figures on labour costs and productivity and the usual weekly data on unemployment insurance claims.
And on Friday the jobs data will be followed by the international trade figures for January, consumer credit and lending figures for the same month and weekly survey of US oil rig use from services company Baker Hughes.
The earnings season in the US, Asia and Europe is almost at an end. In America just 12 companies in the S&P 500 are expected to report 4th quarter figures, with retailers dominating for a second week. They will be led by Best Buy, Autozone, Petsmart, Staple, Costco and Kroger.
Outside of the US, Barclays Bank, the commodities and resources group Glencore and Adidas German sports group, are expected to report.
In Asia yesterday’s release of the official report on Chinese manufacturing activity will be followed by the second report for February from HSBC/Markit today, with the monthly update on the health of the country’s services sector issued on Wednesday.
The weekend’s rate cut will dominate thinking about the heath of the Chinese economy.
Next Sunday sees the release of Chinese trade data for February. It will be distorted by the Lunar New Year holiday.
In Europe, the week will be dominated by the March meeting Thursday night (our time) of the European Central Bank.
No change in rates is expected, but analysts are looking for commentary on the start of the central bank’s quantitative easing program this month.
The Bank of England also meets on Thursday night, our time, and is expected to keep its benchmark rate unchanged at 0.5%, but perhaps talk more about a possible rate rise in the near future.
Tonight, our time, sees the release in Europe of the February ‘flash’ reports on inflation (down into deflation territory on a headline basis, and actual deflation in some individual economies such as Greece, Spain, Netherlands, Finland, Denmark and Sweden), and unemployment (a slight improvement).
Retail sales figures for January are also out Wednesday for the eurozone as a whole.
On Thursday, industrial output numbers are meanwhile published in Germany (and industrial orders the day before) and fourth quarter GDP data are updated in the eurozone as a whole the same day.
