China’s June trade data was more of the same – weak and underwhelming with exports and imports (in dollar terms) down more than forecasts had predicted.
Exports fell 4.8% from a year earlier, the China’s General Administration of Customs said last night, adding that China’s economy faces increasing downward pressure and the trade situation will be severe for the rest of this year.
That was a slightly bigger fall than the 4.1% slide in may, but not as large as double digit falls seen earlier in the year and at times in late 2015.
Imports dropped 8.4% from a year earlier, indicating the impact of measures to stimulate growth in the world’s second-largest economy may be fading, after encouraging import readings in May. Imports were down just 0.4% in May.
That resulted in a trade surplus of $US48.11 billion in June, versus forecasts of $US46.64 billion and May’s $US49.98 billion.
In terms of commodities, crude oil imports between January to June grew by 14.2% compared to the same period a year earlier. Elsewhere imports of iron ore, copper and coal grew by 9.1%, 22% and 8.2% respectively (see separate story).
While exports to major trading partners – including the US, Japan and Asean – did rise slightly from May, exports to most top markets fell compared with June 2015.
Shipments to the US suffered the most in dollar terms with an annualised drop of 10.4%, while exports to the EU, Asean, South Korea and Japan all fell by around 3% to 4%. Shipments to Hong Kong dropped nearly 7%.
Exports to Brazil plunged 21.5% (thanks to the deep recession in that country). Imports from Canada slumped 44.6% as oil shipments fell, and dropped 12.7% from the US last month.
Half-year figures in US dollar provided by the Chinese customs showed imports fell 10.2% in the six months to June, while imports were down 7.7%. the fall in imports is due to weak commodity prices in the first half of 2016 compared to a year earlier.
In local currency, China’s renminbi-denominated exports grew 1.3% year-on-year in June – up from 1.2% the month prior – while imports purchased using the currency fell 2.3% in June, a sharp reversal from growth of more than 5% in May.
