OPEC, US employment data for November, the Austrian presidential election, the Italian electoral reform (next Sunday) and the second round primary for the French conservatives for next year’s election (yesterday) and Australia’s September quarter business investment figures – all will be the main focus points in the coming week.
There’s also the usual end of month stockmarket performance figures, and the start of month reports on manufacturing activities from the world’s major economies, GDP updates from a coupe of major economies.
Brazil’s central bank meets on interest rates, while the early inflation and jobs data from the eurozone will be out late in the week, as well as the usual end of month figures from Japan (the monthly inflation figures last week were marginally better than expected).
As we report in the oil story, an OPEC deal is problematic, even if agreement is reached. But the US jobs report for November on Friday night will be the week’s major release for the markets.
The AMP’s Chief Economist Dr Shane Oliver says the “jobs data is likely to show unemployment unchanged at 4.9% and wages growth holding at 2.8%.” He says around 180,000 new jobs are expected.
“Meanwhile expect a rise in consumer confidence and further gains in home prices (both Tuesday), solid personal spending but the core personal consumption deflator remaining around 1.8% year on year and little change in pending home sales (all Wednesday), he wrote at the weekend.
Dr Oliver says the November report on manufacturing is expected to show a solid rise in US manufacturing conditions index. As well there’s the second estimate of US third quarter GDP out on Tuesday night, our time, along with the house price data for September.
Its a quiet week in the US for quarterly earnings – those known to be reporting include Tiffany’s, Kroger, Lands End, Big Lots and Dollar General.
Third quarter GDP results will be released in Brazil and Canada. In the Eurozone, all eyes will be on the Austrian presidential election and Italian senate referendum – both to be held next Sunday, December 4.
Opinion polls point to a victory by the right wing Eurosceptic candidate in Austria and a “No” vote in Italy both of which will lead to an increase in Eurozone break up fears, and place renewed pressure on Italian and European banks.
The French conservatives will select their candidate for the Presidential poll next May.
On the data front, economic confidence indicators (Tuesday night) are expected to show further strength and core inflation (Wednesday night) is likely to have remained around 0.8% year on year. And another small rise in eurozone employment is expected on Thursday.
Japanese jobs data for November is likely to have remained strong but household spending (both tomorrow) is expected to have remained soft and industrial production (on Wednesday) will again be relatively subdued.
The two Chinese manufacturing surveys out on Thursday) for November may slip back a bit but are likely to remain in a rising trend.
Elsewhere in Asia, third quarter GDP results are out in India.
In Australia, September quarter business investment data on Wednesday is expected to show continued mining driven weakness but with signs that mining investment is getting close to the bottom and that non-mining investment plans are on the rise.
And there’s the usual start of the month day with a bounce expected in building approvals and continued moderate credit growth (both for October and both also out Wednesday) and October’s retail sales on Friday (Dr Oliver says a 0.2% rise is expected).
And there are a number of important results out this week. Aristocrat releases its full year figures on Wednesday. Retailer and wholesaler, Metcash produces its interim figures later today. Global testing giant, ALS releases its figures tomorrow, along with another Brisbane-based company, Collins Food.
Local annual meetings include Bank of Queensland, Nufarm, St Barbara, Northern Star Resources, Brickworks, Mayne Pharma, Retail Food Group and Vocus.
And early results say that Francois Fillon will be the presidential candidate of the French centre-right parties and the main challenger to far-right leader Marine Le Pen in next year’s election. With votes from over a third of 10,228 polling stations counted, Fillon, who went into Sunday’s second-round run-off leader after the previous Sunday’s first round polls, had won 68.6% of the vote compared with 31.4% for his rival, another ex-prime minister in Alain Juppe. The Socialists hold their primary in January and is likely to be a desultory affair.
