Last Tuesday, the President-elect Donald Trump declared that “we’re living through the greatest jobs theft in the history of the world”, which sits rather oddly with today’s chart, showing that the US is basically at full employment – that is, that the unemployment rate has arrived at the statistical “natural rate”.
The Federal Reserve Board meets this week, and the expectation that it will increase interest rates for the second time – exactly 12 months after the first hike – is unanimous: 100% of economists surveyed by Bloomberg are predicting a hike of 0.25% in the Fed funds rate. Growth is looking better, inflation is on the way back and wages are rising as a result of low unemployment. Donald Trump got in with his doom and gloom message just in time.
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