A short week in some countries (Australia, NZ, much of Europe, parts of Asia and the UK and US and Canada because of the start of Easter), so a lot of data and reports will be compressed into four days instead of five.
China’s March and first quarter data starts flowing midweek and US earnings kick off on Thursday night with three big banks reporting.
Central banks in Canada, Argentina, South Korea, Singapore and Brazil are expected to deliver interest rate decisions this week.
But all attention will be on Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen, who speaks at the University of Michigan Ford School of Public Policy on tonight, our time, as she takes questions from both the audience and Twitter.
What will she say about the weaker than expected March jobs report and the Fed’s gradual move to start shrinking its $US4 billion plus balance sheet (which could become a further rate rise).
There’s housing finance data today in Australia (which will tell us is the investor lending boom continued into February) and the March employment report for Australia is out on Thursday as well.
Thursday also sees the first of two Financial Stability Reviews from the RBA issued on Thursday.
That will be after the usual monthly surveys of business tomorrow from the NAB, and consumer confidence (from Westpac) on Wednesday.
According to the AMP’s chief economist, Dr Shane Oliver, Thursday’s jobless report will see a 30,000 bounce in employment in March with unemployment remaining at 5.9%.
The RBA’s first Financial Stability Review of the year will repeat the Bank’s recent concerns regarding financial stability risks flowing from excessive growth in home prices and household debt – but this is likely to be a bit dated given that the regulators have already moved.
In the US, March quarter earnings reports will start to flow with reports from Delta Airlines, JPMorgan, Citi and Wells Fargo the major releases.
On the data front, there’s small business optimism and job openings (all Tuesday night), March retail sales (Friday night) and consumer inflation figures for March also out on Friday.
There’s a two day meeting of G-7 foreign ministers starting tonight our time in Italy, with a press conference tomorrow night. Watch for Syria to dominate, and perhaps Brexit.
In China, March consumer inflation is out on Wednesday and Dr Oliver says it could rise to 1.2% year on year after February’s surprise fall to 0.8%.He says though look for producer price inflation to slow to 7.5% yoy (from 7.8%.
Chinese trade data is out on Thursday is likely to show a slowing in import growth to 20% yoy but a pick-up in export growth to 10% yoy. Money supply and credit data will also be released for March.
