Banks central and private and the usual monthly statistics will dominate the coming week in the lead up to the May 9 Federal Budget in Australia and globally where all attention will be on the two day meeting of the US Federal Reserve, and then the April jobs report on Friday night.
Locally three major banks report – the ANZ and NAB with interims, and Macquarie with its final.
In Australia there’s the Reserve Bank board meeting tomorrow and no interest rate rise, and the second of the year’s monetary policy updates from the central bank on Friday.
Between the two RBA Governor, Philip Lowe makes a major speech on housing and the economy in Brisbane on Wednesday.
In the corporate area the interim results from the ANZ Bank, also tomorrow (will it raise its payout?) and the NAB on Thursday (ditto on its dividend) will dominate investor thinking.
Macquarie Group releases its final on Friday – the company has guided the market to expect a small rise from the 2016 result, and the major interest for analysts is what directors say about the 2017-18 financial year and its outlook.
Besides the bank there’s the quarterly report from US-controlled Genworth Australia, the country’s major mortgage insurer, and on Wednesday shareholders in QBE are due to hold their annual general meeting in Sydney. Thursday sees shareholders in Caltex Australia meeting in Sydney.
Other AGMs this week include Rio Tinto on Thursday, Santos, also on Thursday and Woodside on Friday. Expect gas prices and supply to dominate the latter meetings.
Mayne Pharma holds its investor day later on Monday and on Thursday toll road group, Transurban holds its 2017 day for investors.
And the Woolworths third quarter sales figures are out tomorrow (not last Friday as some guides had indicated). Woolies is expected to reveal it has regained sales momentum from Coles.
This week’s statistics in Australia include the start of the month survey of manufacturing activity (and offshore as well), plus the survey of services (and offshore as well) later in the week.
House prices for April, and the March and March quarter figures on trade with attention focused on the size of the surplus (that’s Thursday).
In New Zealand the fate of the proposed merger between Fairfax Media’s local arm and NZME will be known on Wednesday when the country’s competition regulator, the NZ Commerce Commission releases its much delayed decision.
Shareholders in APN News and Media, which controls NZME, are due to hold their AGM in Sydney on Thursday where the NZ decision will no doubt feature heavily.
The Fed statement early Thursday morning our time will be of considerable interest to investors as the US central bank is expected to provide a bt more clarity on the course of interest rates over the rest of this year, and perhaps more of an idea as to if (and when) it will start shrinking the size of its $US4 trillion balance sheet (which would be a defacto monetary policy tightening).
Before that chair Janet Yellen is due to speak tonight our time in the US but won’t say anything significant ahead of the Fed meeting.
As well we get the US April jobs report on Friday, as well as the global manufacturing and service sector activity surveys for April, as well as the US first quarter earnings season.
After March’s surprise reading of 98,000 jobs, US economists are far more cautious, predicting between 180,000 and 200,000 new jobs.
But should the figure be substantially less than forecast for a second month in a row, there will be a rapid reassessment of the path of interest rates and the health of the US economy.
A weak outcome will suddenly make the 0.7% GDP estimate for the first reading of March quarter growth look more accurate, rather than ignored as it was on Friday (even though it was a sharp slowdown from the 2.1% in the December quarter and 3.5% in the September quarter.
US earnings continue, though at a slower pace than last week’s record 194 S&P 500 company reports. Around 120 S&P 500 companies are down to report in the US, and more from the UK, Japan, China and the EU.
The big result, in fact the major result of the earnings season is out early Wednesday, our time when Apple releases its March quarter figures (it will be Apple’s second quarter and half yearly report). Facebook follows a day later. Both results will impact investor sentiment and the current US market surge.
In the Eurozone expect unemployment (tomorrow night) for April to fall to 9.4% from 9.5% and March quarter GDP growth (Wednesday) is expected to rise 0.6% quarter on quarter for an annual rate of around 1.8%, according to the AMP’s chief economist, Dr Shane Oliver.
And May 4 sees local government elections in the UK with the polls to watch being for the Lord Mayor’s slots in Britain’s second and third biggest cities, Manchester and Birmingham.
China’s two manufacturing activity surveys and then the services surveys mid week are forecast to remain well above the 50 level which is the boundary between contraction and expansion (above).
