A big week for markets around the world, including Australia with the September jobs data and some big quarterly production reports, important data from China, the start of that country’s important 19th National Congress that will produce a new leadership group, two speeches in the US by Fed chair Janet Yellen and other Fed members, more unpredictability from President Trump and a step up in the pace of America’s third quarter earnings reports.
Japan has its snap election next Sunday at which prime Minister Abe is expected to be re-elected.
Investors will watching Beijing not just for the economic data, but for the Communist Party’s 19th Congress.
In Australia, the AMP’s Chief Economist, Dr Shane Oliver says the minutes from the RBA’s last board meeting (tomorrow) “are unlikely to add anything new and will continue to imply that the RBA retains a neutral short term bias with respect to interest rates.”
He also says September jobs data on Thursday” is likely to show a 10,000 fall in jobs but with unemployment unchanged at 5.6%.”
In the corporate area Australian Pharmaceutical Industries is due to release its 2016-17 results later in the week.
But the main news events will be September quarter production reports from resource giants like Evolution Mining, Rio Tinto and Oz Minerals (today), Galaxy Resources tomorrow,BHP (Wednesday), Northern Star, Sandfire, Woodside and Santos on Thursday.
Annual meetings will be held by a number of companies including Cochlear, Orora and Telstra tomorrow; Brambles, CSL, Aurizon and Insurance Australia Group on Friday.
In China on Wednesday, Chinese President Xi Jinping opens the National Congress – which will install Mr Xi as party chief for a second five-year term.
The meeting could highlight the Party’s goals for the next five years that seek to strike a balance between economic growth and reforms. Immediately after the Congress the new Central Committee holds its first plenum and elects the General Secretary of the Party’s Central Committee, the Politburo and the Politburo Standing Committee.
The latter is the most important body in China and the make up of the seven person group will give us a good idea of what will happen in China for the next five years.
Chinese economic data for release this week will include third quarter GDP (Friday), September inflation (later today), industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment (on Thursday and the closely watched property investment figures).
Growth is expected to have cooled modestly to 6.8%, according to a Thomson Reuters poll, from 6.9% in the second quarter.
Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen spoke on the economy and monetary policy at the Group of 30 International Banking Seminar in Washington overnight Sunday, and on Friday she is due to speak at dinner in the US on Saturday morning, our time.
Ms Yellen isn’t the only voting member of the monetary Fed’s Open Market Committee speaking this week. Minneapolis Fed president Neel Kashkari, outgoing Fed governor Stanley Fischer, New York Fed president Bill Dudley and Dallas Fed president Robert Kaplan are also due to deliver remarks.
US economic data releases will include September industrial production (Tuesday night, our time), September housing starts (Wednesday night) and existing home sales (Friday night). Regional manufacturing surveys should show that indicators for October have remained strong.
The Fed will also release its Beige Book of anecdotal indicators (Wednesday).
The September quarter profit reporting season will also accelerates with 60 or so S&P 500 stocks reporting – Netflix tomorrow morning, our time, will be one of the more important for market confidence.
Japan Sunday’s poll should see PM Abe’s coalition government comfortably returned with poll support for the new Party of Hope declining.
