A big week ahead with news from central banks, the latest US jobs data, more US tech and other profits, the start of month surveys of global manufacturing and some economic figures for Australia for September.
The central banks in question are the monetary policy meetings of the US Federal Reserve midweek, with no change in rates expected, the Bank of England on Thursday night, our time with wide expectations of the first rate rise in 14 years and the Bank of Japan which meets tomorrow.
On Friday, US President Donald Trump embarks on an 11-day trip to Asia visiting Japan, South Korea, China, the Philippines and Vietnam.
The European Central Bank surprised last week with its 12 month (at least) extension of its quantitative easing and commitment to continue the ultra low interest rates for longer than that.
But the Fed is expected to raise rates in December (see separate story) with this forecast big October jobs report on Friday a big part of the expected increase.
The Bank of England though will be finally responding to rising inflation and no expectations of any reduction soon, despite weakening demand and activity in the wider economy thanks to the impact of Brexit.
The global recovery that is lifting the US, EU/European, Asian and Australian and NZ economies seems to be bypassing Brexit Britain, but leaving behind as growing headache from inflationary pressures that’s dragging the economy towards 70’s style Stagflation.
The US October jobs data on Friday night is expected to show a 300,000 rebound in payrolls to make up for the hurricane driven 33,000 decline seen in September.
Unemployment is expected to remain around 4.2% but wages growth may also slip back a bit to 2.7% year on year, according to forecasts from the AMP’s Chief Economist, Dr Shane Oliver.
On top of that there’s the data on personal spending low core inflation for September (out tonight and the Fed’s preferred measure), home prices, more consumer confidence figures and employment costs (all out Tuesday night). Wednesday sees the US manufacturing survey and the trade deficit on Friday.
September quarter earnings results will also continue to flow with reports from the likes of Apple and Facebook set to dominate.
President Trump could also announce his nomination for Fed Chair this week – no one knows who it will be but the AMP’s Dr Oliver says it looks a choice between existing Chair Janet Yellen, current Fed Governor Jerome Powell and academic John Taylor.
"Yellen and Powell would be seen as more of the same and Taylor who advocates a rules based approach may be seen as more hawkish. However, it’s doubtful the choice will change the tightening path the Fed takes over the next year, but Taylor may be slower to respond in the event of a crisis,“ Dr Oliver wrote at the weekend.
Eurozone data sees the release of economic confidence (tonight), a fall in unemployment (to 9%), a rise in September quarter GDP growth of 0.6% quarter on quarter or 2.5% year on year and only a slight lift in underlying inflation (all Tuesday) to 1.1% year on year, according to Dr Oliver’s weekend note.
Watch also for news from Spain and even perhaps some weak data from that country caused by the growing tensions in Catalonia.
We also get the usual end of month data from Japan and it is expected to show continued labour market strength, stronger household spending and some slowing in industrial production (all tomorrow).
The Bank of Japan also meets tomorrow and is expected to continue quantitative easing and keep its 10-year bond yield around zero.
China’s manufacturing conditions PMIs (Tuesday for the official survey and Wednesday for the private sector version) are expected to point to continued solid growth.
In Australia, in credit for September is out tomorrow from the Reserve Bank, house price figures for October from CoreLogic on Wednesday which is expected to show further falls in price growth, especially in Sydney.
A fall in building approvals (on Thursday) is expected and a small rise gain in September retail sales (on Friday) after two months of falls. September quarter real retail sales data is expected to show a sharp slowing.
The National Australia Bank releases its 2016-17 profit and dividend, while CSR is down to release its 2017-18 interim figures.
Fairfax Media holds its annual meeting on Thursday with the separation of its Domain property website listings business to be voted on by shareholders. It is expected to be easily approved.
