The coming week will see the usual end of month/start of month data dump for global markets to digest, led by US May jobs and wages data on Friday, and the start of the run up to Australia’s March quarter GDP figures next week.
Thursday and Friday sees the release of the usual start of month global surveys of manufacturing – the two from China on Thursday and Friday are the most important for Australia.
In Australia, March quarter business investment data will be released on Thursday and the AMP’s Chief Economist, Dr Shane Oliver says we can “expect to see a 0.8% bounce in March quarter investment with investment intentions data showing ongoing signs that mining investment is getting near the bottom and that non-mining investment is edging up.”
As well, building approvals data for April is forecast to show a 1% decline (out Wednesday), private credit for April are out on Thursday from the Reserve Bank and the May CoreLogic report on Friday is forecast to show “another modest fall in May home prices led by Sydney,” according to Dr Oliver.
The March manufacturing survey will be released on Friday.
The March profit reporting season is all but over with just one company down to report – the Brisbane-based testing group, ALS. Its six month figures are out later today.
In the US, it will be a big week on the data front with inflation and May’s jobs data the focus.
The US labour market data on Friday night, our time is expected to show a solid 185,000 rise in payrolls, according to a forecast from Dr Oliver. He sees unemployment holding at 3.9% and wages growth edging up to 2.7% year on year from 2.6% the month before.
Other surveys suggest around 193,000 jobs for May.
The core personal consumption deflator figures on Thursday (it’s the Fed’s favourite measure) is expected to show inflation remaining at 1.9% year on year or May, just below the Fed’s 2% target.
Before then, there’s the latest US consumer confidence report on Tuesday; May personal spending (on Thursday with the inflation figures); pending home sales (also Thursday) and the May manufacturing activity on Friday (Friday).
Friday’s jobs report will be the final jobs report before the Federal Reserve delivers its monetary policy decision next month. It and the update on personal consumption expenditures and core inflation, should provide the Fed with a fresh picture on price pressures in the US economy.
The June Fed meeting is expected to lift rates again.
The US first quarter profit reporting season runs out of steam this week with around 8 S&P 500 companies to report, led by discount supermarket chain, Costco.
The second reading on US economic growth is also on Wednesday expected to show no change from the preliminary annual rate of 2.3%.
In Europe, Eurozone data to be released Thursday will include the early unemployment report (8.5%) and inflation ( a slight rise in core inflation to 0.8% year on year from April’s fall to 0.7%).
Japanese labour market data (Tuesday) and industrial production (Thursday) will be released, along with the manufacturing survey on Friday.
Dr Oliver says the Chinese business conditions surveys on Thursday and Friday “are likely to continue to average around recent levels consistent with solid growth."
This week also sees the annual auction for a lunch with Warren Buffett, the chief executive of Berkshire Hathaway, with the winner announced on Friday. Online bids started yesterday (Sunday) on eBay. The winning bidder and up to seven friends will dine with Mr Buffett at Smith & Wollensky, a well-known steakhouse (https:// www.smithandwollenskynyc.com) in in New York.
The auction’s proceeds support Glide, a San Francisco charity that provides meals, physical and mental healthcare services and substance abuse treatment. Thus far the lunches, which began in 2000, have raised more than $US26 million for the charity. Last year’s auction raised about $US2.68 million.
