The most crucial figures for Australia from China’s monthly trade reports are the level of imports of key commodities such as iron ore, coal and LNG and October saw some solid outcomes that belied reports of weaker levels of economic activity.
Iron ore imports fell, but imports of oil hit an all-time high last month, soybean and coal imports were lower, as were imports of copper.
Imports of iron ore fell to a four-month low in October, reflecting slower shipments from major suppliers (such as Australia) even as Chinese steel mill demand remained strong ahead of winter production curbs.
China imported 88.4 million tons of iron ore last month, data from the country’s General Administration of Customs showed, the lowest since June and 5.4% below September’s 93.47 million tons.
Still, the October imports were up from 79.47 million tons in the same month last year.
For the first 10 months of 2018, China’s iron ore imports reached 891.69 million tons, down slightly from 896.10 million tons in the same period a year earlier.
That helped iron ore prices for 62% iron ore delivered to northern China to rise 17% to late October from the lows of July.
Exports from the Australian iron ore port of Port Headland fell 2.1% in October and 10% to China to 37.7 million tonnes.
Oil imports in October surged 32% from a year earlier to 40.80 million tonnes, or 9.61 million barrels per day (bpd), according to the General Administration of Customs, climbing from 9.05 million bpd in September. The previous daily record of 9.60 million bpd was hit in April 2018.
The imports rose 8.1% for the first 10 months of the year from the same period last year to 377.16 million tonnes, or 9.06 million bpd, on track for another record year. It is confirmation that economic activity remains solid, even though car sales have fallen for three months in a row.
Gas imports rose on a year ago but eased from September ahead of the winter heating season starting next week.
Total natural gas imports in October via both pipeline and as liquefied natural gas (LNG) came to 7.3 million tonnes, up 25.6% from the same month last year, but down from 7.62 million tonnes in September (which is a single shipment less).
Coal imports fell for another month, dropping to 23.04 million tonnes from 25.14 million tonnes in September. Imports for the year are now running at 252 million tonnes (down more than 10% from a year ago) and look like falling short of 300 million tonnes by the end of December.
Unwrought copper imports fell to 441,000 tonnes from a high of 521,000 tonnes in September.
Soybean imports fell 13% to 6.92 million tonnes from 8.01 million in September. But October’s figure was up 18% from October 2017. Imports for the year are now running at just under 77 million tonnes, down from 77.3 million tonnes in the same period last year.
