A couple of central banks, Australian jobs, US earnings and more on the US government shutdown and Brexit are likely to dominate this week but take a look at the release later today of China’s December, 4th quarter and 2018 core economic data well as the important headline figures for GDP growth.
China’s National Statistics Bureau releases December month and quarter and 2018 data on industrial production, investment and retail sales – the three core data points for China watchers – and all three have been signalling a slowing Chinese economy.
As well the 4th quarter and 2018 GDP figures will be released and while growth is expected to be around 6.5% for the year (meeting the goal of the government).
If 4th quarter growth is around 6.5%, that will see the annual rate a fraction above that level. But some economists wonder if it could be as low as 6.3% which is a growth figure not been seen for decades.
Annual growth of 6.5% will still down noticeably from the 6.9% in 2017. September growth was 6.5%, June quarter growth was 6.7% and March quarter growth was 6.8%. The December 2017 quarter saw growth of 6.8%.
Exports fell in December, while imports grew at a much slower rate than forecast.
Consumer inflation remains under control, but producer price inflation is slowing and this is seen as a sign of weakening demand in manufacturing because of the lower level of domestic demand and weaker offshore purchases.
The Chinese data will be watched closely in Australia and the rest of Asia, but with US markets closed tonight for a holiday, the global impact could be muted, especially if the figures are not too wide of market forecasts.
In Australia, it’s the December jobs report on Thursday from the Bureau of Statistics. Around 10,000 to15,000 new jobs are estimated by the market with the jobless rate staying around 5.1% of November.
There are a smattering of December financial reports – Australian Foundation Investment Co (AFIC) releases its interim figures this morning, while on Thursday, sleep tech, Resmed reports its 4th quarter figures in the US (Friday morning here).
Companies reporting their December production and sales reports this week include BHP Group, Oil Search, Santos, and Iluka Resources, Pilbara Minerals, Lynas and some of the gold miners.
US data releases this week include a manufacturing survey, durable goods, and new home sales.
US 4th quarter reports step up this week and among those expected to report are IBM, Johnson & Johnson, United Technologies, Comcast, Textron, American Airlines, Southwest Airlines, Alaska Air, Abbott Labs, Bristol Myers, Starbucks, Ford and Proctor, and Gamble.
Ford is expected to be a big blob of red ink as the car company starts accounting for the cost of factory closures and tens of thousands of job cuts in the US and across the world.
Central banks in Japan and the eurozone will also have few things to say on Wednesday and Thursday respectively – don’t expect very much new from December.
And Prime Minister May is due to return to the UK parliament tonight, our time with her new plan (the so-called ‘Plan B’) for Brexit.
