Generally a quiet week ahead for markets except for continuing confusion about just what is happening with Brexit.
If anyone can sort it out, send a card because just what happens to the Brexit proposal of Prime Minister May is the big question for the UK and markets globally.
Can it be re-voted on by the House of Commons, and if it will, what happens if it is rejected? That a state of utter confusion exists is a major understatement, but accurate.
Could it be Brexit as planned on this Friday the 29th of March, or two weeks later in April, or in June?
The confusion and growing instability in UK markets comes at the worst possible time if the sell-off in Europe and the US on Friday continues into this week, as is highly likely.
That instability, falling interest rates in Japan, Europe, the US, and Australia will be the dominant factor this week, but confusion over Brexit could see more investors head for the safety of bond and drag interest rates even lower and with them share markets.
Next Sunday though is also a source of interest – the end of the first quarter and in the US estimates for earnings growth are already emerging with some analysts forecasting a fall of 1.7% to 2.5% from a year ago.
A sustained sell-off this week could see stock market gains from February and January trimmed back.
The major data release will be the final reading of US 4th quarter GDP. Economists expect the final figure will come in around an annual 2.4% from the previous 2.6% estimate and down from 3.4% in the September quarter
As well there’s data releases on housing starts for February, home prices and consumer confidence (all due tomorrow), trade data, new and pending home sales and January consumer spending figures on Friday along with core private consumption deflator inflation (expected to remain at 1.9% year on year).
Eurozone economic confidence figures for March to be released Thursday will be watched for signs of stabilisation after falling over the last year while core inflation on Friday is likely to have remained stuck around an annual rate of 1%, according to the AMP’s Dr. Shane Oliver.
Japanese jobs data for February also on Friday is likely to have remained strong but industrial production is likely to bounce.
In Australia, ABS job vacancy data for February is due Thursday and private credit growth figures from the Reserve Bank on Friday.
Senior RBA officials Luci Ellis and Chris Kent on Tuesday and Wednesday will be watched for any clues on the interest rate outlook.
Luci Kent’s speech tomorrow will be the more important. She’s the Assistant Governor in charge of economics and her specialty is housing. Her speech is to the Housing industry Association and is expected to discuss the fall in house prices. If it is it will be the third major speech from a senior RBA figure in a month.
Governor Phil Lowe made the first speech in early March entitled The Housing Market and The Economy and the health of the financial system department, Michelle Bullock followed with an address in Perth last week entitled Property, Debt, and Financial Stability. As well the bank also released a detailed paper on March 11 entitled A Model Of The Australian Housing Market.
