Don't look for any rattling of investors' confidence today from the federal election result.
Friday's thin trading-boosted 181 point gain on Wall Street, plus positive news on post Thanksgiving sales in the US over the weekend, and higher gold and copper prices, will have a bigger impact.
As is their wont, investors, analysts and others will be searching for winners and losers: well it might become clear in a few months or a year's time but there's little separating the economic policies of the new and old federal governments and, the Reserve Bank is in charge anyway.
There will be a solid dose of reality from the RBA next week with their December meeting, the last until February, plus the September quarter national accounts as well.
The election of a new government will mean no rate rise and probably nothing now until the second quarter of 2008, unless there's a sharp rise in inflation revealed at the end of January in the December quarter's Consumer Price Index.
The decision by the former Treasurer, Peter Costello not to contest the leadership of the Liberal Party is a significant factor and changes the political landscape dramatically, which will in turn have a significant impact for business.
The decision would leave the way open for millionaire businessman, Malcolm Turnbull, to become Opposition Leader.
We can also expect Federal Departments like Treasury will come back into the mainstream economic debate; more so than just being limited to one-offs like budgets and the two Intergenerational reports.
Water, carbon trading, climate change, conservation and new technologies are all things Federal Treasury is known to have been looking at in the context of the current Australian economy.
AMP's chief economist and strategist, Dr Shane Oliver points out that:"Through this election campaign both the share market and currency market have largely ignored the election with the gyrations in the US and global share markets being the key driver and this is likely to remain the case after the poll.
"A change of government may be more important at a sectoral level with construction, building materials, education and maybe health related stocks likely to benefit over time.
"As can be seen in the charts below the performance of the share market and $A around Australian elections is somewhat ambiguous. There is some evidence that shares track sideways in the run-up to elections and then pick-up thereafter but the two episodes in the last 25 years where there was a change of government show seemingly surprising results.
"Soon after Labor's victory in 1983 shares took off, probably reflecting the global recovery at the time, but after the Coalition's 1996 victory shares just range traded," Dr Oliver said.
This week will see (See Diary report below) that the events in US financial markets remain the most important external factor for us in Australia and other economies around the world.
It could start out a strong day here and a weak week by Friday if there's poor housing numbers, a sharp drop in consumer confidence in the US and a very high level of growth in the US economy in the third quarter.
Offsetting that will be reports that US consumers spent more than expected on Friday in the first day of post Thanksgiving sales, while big middle class retailer, J.C. Penny also reported a solid performance, but cautioned against too much optimism.
Analysts said there was a similar bright start last year, only for the Christmas season to turn out to be disappointing as the sales momentum faded in December.
But a quick summary of broking and media reports from late last week and the weekend show the best sectors to watch are infrastructure, construction and mining services, renewable energy, childcare, telecoms (broadband) and funds management.
Funds management will be a key sector to keep an eye on (the likes of AMP, AXA, Platinum and the listed investments companies like Argo, AFIC and Milton).
The new prime minister, Mr Rudd singled out the funds management industry as one which could be used to spearhead a big push into Asia by the financial services sector. Companies like these big groups (and the banks and others like IOOF for example) have ideas, processes and the people with considerable experience in managing money, pensions and manufacturing products.
Rudd in fact asked a very sensible series of questions in making this push a priority in the campaign. He asked why Australia, with the fourth biggest funds management industry (and superannuation/retirement pool) in the world, wasn't making more of the expertise in Asia.
It's a solid point: AXA is battling away in Hong Kong (that's a result of a break up in the geographic structure of its French parent), but the closest most Australian companies in the sector have got to Asia, is in direct or indirect investment through portfolios, or through Foreign Direct Investment in minority stakes.
The resources industry, from the miners, to the contractors and service suppliers (and no doubt some customers) will be watching the ALP's approach on industrial relations very closely, especially on Workplace Agreements.
But that won't impact the market immediately.
Of greater importance will be the ALP's plans to examine the prices of petrol and retail grocery and fresh food: that has the capacity top generate a lot of easy headlines and problems for retailers like Woolworths and oil groups like Caltex.
Mining services companies might be more affected by AWA changes because they operate on thin margins, but such is the strong dema
