The Fed “pause” is back to being a matter of great debate following this week’s policy meeting, but for the local market, next week’s RBA meeting will be the most critical since August 2016 – the last time we saw a rate cut.
The market is factoring in a 50/50 chance of a cut next week to 1.25%. We could call that 50% weak CPI data and 50% strong labour market.
Data releases next week include ANZ job ads, retail sales, trade and the construction PMI. On Friday the RBA releases its quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy.
China releases trade and inflation numbers next week, as does the US.
UK markets are closed on Monday.
The local stock market will see a sudden burst of earnings results next week, including those of Westpac ((WBC)), CSR ((CSR)), EclipX Group ((ECX)), Graincorp ((GNC)), Orica ((ORI)) and News Corp ((NWS)).
Qantas ((QAN)) will provide a quarterly update.
By the end of the week the AGM spigot will open in earnest, featuring meetings for the likes of Rio Tinto ((RIO)), Oil Search ((OSH)) and QBE Insurance ((QBE)), among others.
