China is expected to report its slowest economic growth in at least 27 years later today when it reveals its June quarter and first half (for 2019) GDP figures.
Economists say June quarter growth could fall to an annual rate of 6.2%, down from the March quarter’s 6.4%.
That was a quarter on quarter growth rate of 1.4%. An annual rate of 6.2% will give a rate for the first half of 2019 around 6.3% unless there are any revisions.
The slowing pace of growth was underlined Friday by the relatively weak June quarter trade data.
Chinese exports fell 1.3% in June from a year ago while imports fell 7.3% in the same period, according to the country’s customs department on Friday.
The dip in exports was slightly better than forecast, while the fall in imports was a bit deeper than the market had expected.
The fall last month reversed May’s surprise 1.1% gain, while the fall in imports followed an 8.5% slide in May, underlining the weakness in domestic activity, especially in manufacturing.
China’s exports dropped to the US (down 7.8%), the EU (-3.1%) and Australia (-3.4%), but rose to ASEAN (up 12.8%), Taiwan (5%), South Korea (2.9%) and Japan (2.4%).
Among imports, purchases of unwrought copper tumbled 27.2% to 326,000 tonnes in June and were down by 9.7% from May’s 361,000 tonnes. Iron ore imports fell 9.7% to 75.18 million tonnes, and were down by 10.2% from the previous month (see separate story).
In addition, soybeans imports slumped 25.1% to 6.51 million tonnes and were down by 11.5% from May.
By contrast, imports of crude oil (rose 15.2% to 39.58 million tonnes) and coal (up 6.4% to 27.10 million tonnes).
LNG imports eased to 7.49 million tonnes in June, down from 7.56 million tonnes.
Imports fell from the US (-31.4%), South Korea (-21.9%), Taiwan (-7.4%) and Japan (-5%), but grew from the EU (8.6%), Australia (8.8%) and ASEAN (0.4%).
China’s trade surplus in June was $US50.98 billion, up from May’s $US41.65 billion.
For the first half of the year, China’s trade surplus jumped by more than a third to $US181.1 billion from $US135.2 billion for the first half of 2018.
For the first half, China’s trade surplus with the US rose around 5% to $US140.48 billion, compared with $US133.76 billion in the same period in 2018.
And car sales in China fell 9.6% in June from the same month a year ago, marking the 12 monthly fall in sales in the world’s largest vehicle market.
Sales fell to 2.06 million vehicles, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) said late last week.
That followed declines of 16.4% in May and 14.6% in April, as well as the first annual contraction last year since the 1990s amid slowing economic growth and a crippling trade war with the United States.
