The focus is on Australia this week for local markets, although all will have a weather eye on China with more data and, more importantly, the daily setting of the value of the Yuan to the US dollar.
That was the major destabilising force last week for markets, along with the confused musings of President Donald Trump who is doing his best to keep himself at the centre of the trade war by encouraging disruption rather than settlement.
The US earnings season slows this week – Europe and Chinese results will still flow, but the Australian June 30 season sees an acceleration with results expected from arouind 40 ASX 200 companies (See separate story).
The major focus though here will be wages and jobs.
The June quarter Wage Price Index one Wednesday is expected to show wages growth stuck around 2.3% year on year and July labour market data on Thursday is expected to show a modest 10,000 gain in employment but unemployment rising to 5.3% and underemployment remaining high at around 8.2%.
The AMP’s Chief Economist, Dr. Shane Oliver wrote at the weekend “continuing high levels of unemployment and underemployment make it hard to see much of lift in wages growth anytime soon which will maintain pressure on the RBA and the Government to provide more stimulus to the economy.”
Tomorrow sees the release of the July business conditions and confidence survey from the NAB and the consumer confidence from Westpac and the Melbourne Institute. Both are expected to have remained subdued.
The Australian June earnings report season will include releases from Ansell, GPT and JB HiFi, Computershare, Telstra and CSL, QBE, Woodside and the ASX and Domain and Cochlear (See separate story).
In the US expect core CPI inflation for July due Tuesday is forecast to remain around 2.1% year on year which is consistent with the Fed’s preferred measure of core inflation remaining around 1.6%yoy (which will be updated later in the week in the latest survey of Private Consumption spending and prices).
Another solid retail sales performance for July will be issue don Thursday (and there are a few retailers report – see separate story).
Chinese activity data for July is out on Wednesday (car sales for July later today) expected to show a slowing in industrial production to 6% year on year (YoY) and in retail sales growth to 8.6%yoy but a slight lift in investment growth to 5.9%yoy.
Housing price data will be out on Thursday.
