Kiwis Flock To Australia

By Glenn Dyer | More Articles by Glenn Dyer

We in Australia must be doing something right.

New Zealand Immigration ran at its highest monthly level in 20 years in December as thousands of Kiwis moved across the Tasman to try for jobs and a new life in our booming economy.

Our economy is growing faster than NZ's, but its not such a dramatic difference (See above graph).

It's not that NZ is depressed or slowing: unemployment is at record lows (see below); rural incomes are strong because of record dairy export prices. But interest rates are at highs and don't look like falling, house price are falling and there seems to be a fair bit of unhappiness, judging by the tenor of stories in newspapers.

It's just the attraction of labour short Australia seems too much, even though our housing is far more expensive and difficult to buy.

Is it there's more sunshine here than at home in New Zealand, or is it the bigger noisier economy next door that's attracting them like moths?

The surge in immigration to Australia last year coincided with a drop of migration to the country: so much so that December saw a net 20 people (yes 20 people) arrive.

It's not that New Zealand isn't unattractive: more than 82,000 immigrated to the country last year, but at the same time more than 77,000 left, with Australia the most popular destination.

Statistics NZ said this week that "on a seasonally adjusted basis, PLT (Permanent Long Time) arrivals matched the PLT (Permanent Long Term) departures in December 2007. This is the lowest seasonally adjusted net flow since May 2001 (net outflow of 200)."

The actual figures, show in raw terms, 106 more people left NZ than arrived in December. But in seasonally adjusted terms (the sort favoured by economists), just 20 more arrivals turned up than those leaving the country: there were 6,680 arrivals against 6,660 departures.

Statistics NZ said that in December, the change in the direction of the net flow was mainly due to 900 more New Zealand citizen departures (including 800 more to Australia) and 200 more non-New Zealand citizen departures.

"In December 2007, there was a net outflow of 2,500 PLT migrants to Australia, up from the outflow of 1,700 in December 2006.

"So, in the year to December, permanent long term migration into the country more than halved to reach 5,500, down from 14,600 in the year to December 2006.

"In the year ended December 2007, there were 82,600 PLT arrivals, down 200 (less than 1%) from the December 2006 year.

"Over the same period, there were 77,100 PLT departures, up 9,000 (13%). As a result, net PLT migration was 5,500 in the December 2007 year, down from 14,600 in the December 2006 year.

Statistics NZ said that in 2007 "The net outflow to Australia was 28,000 in 2007, compared with 20,700 the previous year.

"This takes the net outflow to Australia to its highest level for a December year since 1988 (when it was 33,400). Net PLT inflows were recorded from the United Kingdom (7,100), India (3,600) and the Philippines (3,200)."

The flow to Australia last year was well over 500 a week, while the total inflow into NZ in 2007 was just over 100 a week.

Now while this is of interest, the real point is the damage this does to the NZ economy if migration at these levels persist and is not matched by rising numbers of migrants arriving.

It means slowing growth and less tax revenues (especially with more skilled and highly paid people leaving the country).

For Australian businesses operating in NZ, such as Woolworths, Fairfax, insurers like QBE and the big four banks, low levels of immigration (and the outflow of people to Australia) is bad news for future business growth and earnings.

One of the reasons the Australian economy is growing so strongly is the high levels of immigration from all sources: business, ordinary skilled workers and others, special visas, long term students and others: around 300,000, give or take a few thousand. At the level of outflow to Australia last year, the 28,000 Kiwis was a touch under 10% of the total inflow into this country.

Meanwhile, figures out yesterday confirm that New Zealand's jobs market is as tight, if not tighter than ours in Australia.

So it's not a lack of jobs that is driving an increasing number of Kiwis here.

Unemployment unexpectedly fell to a low 3.4% in the fourth quarter from 3.5% in the September three months.

Statistics NZ said a total of 23,000 people found work in the quarter, which was more than four times the forecast from the market.

NZ's unemployment rate is much less than Australia's 4.3%.

It's another sign of the strains in the NZ economy, which echo those here.

Consumer prices jumped by an annual 3.2% in the fourth quarter from a year earlier and exceeded the central bank's target range while private sector wages grew by a record 3.5% in the fourth quarter from the last quarter of 2006

Employment rose 1.1% from the third quarter and a solid 2.5% from a year ago, today's report showed. The median estimate of economists was for a 0.3 percent gain in the quarter.

Full-time employment rose by 26,000 jobs, or 1.6%, in the fourth quarter and 1.5% from a year earlier. Part-time jobs fell by 2,000 jobs in the quarter.

About Glenn Dyer

Glenn Dyer has been a finance journalist and TV producer for more than 40 years. He has worked at Maxwell Newton Publications, Queensland Newspapers, AAP, The Australian Financial Review, The Nine Network and Crikey.

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