Consider this: the Reserve Bank lifts interest rates next week and leaves a very strong hint that they will rise even further this year.
Commentators are overwhelming supportive and a flock of business economists join the chorus tipping (in some cases actively pushing) another rise.
The RBA has lifted rates 0.50% but short term money market rates have risen by between 0.77% and 0.91% since August 1 last year, and the banks have captured some but not all of that extra rate pressure.
Critics were few and far between last week of the RBA and in Friday's Air Weekly we wondered if the bank had moved too far and if it would know how to stop.
On Friday a prominent business economist, The AMP's chief of strategy, Dr Shane Oliver weighed in, wondering if the bank had done the right thing.
And his scepticism (See below) seems to have been supported by the economic and market released news.
"The deteriorating global growth outlook and rising oil stockpiles are taking their toll on oil prices which are down
"In Australia, the Reserve Bank raised interest rates again taking the cash rate to 7%, its highest since November 1996, citing worse than expected inflation, strong domestic demand and capacity pressures.
"In appearing not to be too concerned about the global outlook, but indicating that a significant slowing in demand is required and that it will continue to monitor whether monetary policy is restrictive enough the RBA has signalled that the risk is for more rate hikes to come. Another hike could come in May if March quarter inflation data, due in late April, continues to show deterioration."
But he wrote in part "We are becoming increasingly concerned the Bank is going too far and as such the risk of a hard landing next year is on the rise".
That echoes similar comments last week from Goldman Sachs JBWere and UBS.
There's a very strong suggestion from markets in Europe late last week that confidence in banks and financiers is again falling because of doubts about the value of corporate bonds.
This was despite news of a slowdown in the US service sector in January, something which was backed up by reports of slower than forecast sales at some of the country's biggest retailers in the same month.
Then the European Central Bank changes tack and says there's a growing danger the US slide could take Europe down so there's every chance the next rate move there will be down, and follow the US, Canada and Britain in cutting official rates.
Thursday and Friday there's a sudden and worrying slump in corporate debt, with spread on some types of debt growing quickly as risk aversion turns down. Commentators in Europe warn that this could imperil hundreds of billions of dollars in corporate loans and private equity financings done, and more still waiting to be completed.
If that's the case then the BHP Billiton bid for Rio could be undermined because the $US55 billion its European and US based banks have undertaken to raise when the bid is complete, could flop.
The Financial Times reported Saturday: "Fears about corporate and commercial property debt reached new heights in the US and Europe on Friday as investors liquidated holdings in a sign of spreading credit turmoil.
"Some of the world's largest investment banks are braced for further losses on loans to private equity groups following a further downturn in the secondary market for the loans.
"Morgan Stanley analysts on Wednesday suggested that, based on recent pricing data, investment banks could be forced to write down the value of leveraged loans stuck on their balance sheets by a further $20bn."
And Bloomberg said "U.S. stocks fell for the first time in three weeks after service industries unexpectedly contracted at the fastest pace since 2001 and analysts predicted rising consumer defaults will drag down banks' earnings".
And also: "U.S. stocks retreated, sending the market to its first weekly decline since mid-January, as concern that corporate defaults will increase".
But then fears about inflation got a kick along as world wheat prices hit new records on Friday as US stocks of the grain were shown to be much lower than expected (at 60 year lows according to the United States Department of Agriculture): lead and oil prices kicked higher, soybean and palm oil prices finished the week strongly and copper hit a three month high. Oil prices also edged higher.
The price rises for lead and copper were due to the snow storms in China impacting production and forcing customers to buy metal from stockpiles in China and Europe so those increases will fade away.
But the prices rises for wheat and the oils, plus strength for other commodities (sugar rose over 12 USc a pound in New York after an accident shut a big American sugar refinery) is a sign that price pressures for food are not going away.
The US dollar had its strongest week for more than 18 months as the euro tumbled on expectations the ECB will cut interest rates. US interest rates rose, then fell. Short term US rates are still falling as fears grow of more problems with banks and leveraged loans to corporates, and a further downgrade of subprime mortgage debt and credit derivatives.
And there was more evidence of the reluctance of US consumers to spend:
According to the US Federal Reserve borrowings by US consumers slowed sharply in the month.
The growth in consumer credit was the slowest in three years. The Fed reported Thursday that consumer borrowing rose at an annual rate of just 2.1% in December, down sharply from the 8.2% rise in November.
The rise was about half of what economists had been expecting. They had forecast that total credit would rise by $US8 billion and instead it increased by $US4.5 billion to $US2.52 tril
