A hard week to work out the order of importance of announcements. In Australia we have the 2007 interim and full year reporting season well under way and in the US some vital figures will flesh out the picture of what seems to be a sliding economy.
US retail sales figures for January are due for release and with the likes of Macy's Wal Mart, Target and JC Penny already surprising by reporting lower than expected outcomes, expectations are not high. Weak January retail sales data are likely to add to evidence the US consumer is fading under the weight of the housing slump and credit crunch as more and more lenders tighten up on lending of all types of loans.
US Federal Reserve Chairman, Ben Bernanke talks to the US Senate Banking and Finance Committee on Thursday. This will also be watched closely to hear his views on the latest statistics and his assessment of the need for another rate cut at the Fed meeting next month.
He is likely to repeat the message that downside risks to growth remain and as such he is unlikely to disturb expectations for a further decline in US interest rates. The US Consumer Confidence Index is also due and that will be read closely in conjunction with the retail sales figures and last week's shock results of the monthly survey of US service industries which showed a very sharp fall.
Here the RBA's Statement on Monetary Policy is out today and will be examined for further hints as to the fate of interest rates later this year.
The bank last week suggested that at least another rate rise would happen later in the year as it seeks to cut inflation as quickly as possible.
As well we will have figures on January jobs growth and unemployment, housing finance for December, and business and consumer confidence.
While the labour market is likely to have remained strong in January, consumer confidence is likely to have fallen again in February thanks to the ongoing turmoil in financial markets and the latest interest rate hike.
The 2007 earnings season is well under way and this will be dominated by Rio Tinto because of the bid last week from BHP Billion. JB Hi-Fi, Coca Cola Amatil, AMP, the Commonwealth Bank, Leighton and Wesfarmers, and West Australian Newspapers are due to report.
There's a deadline for the Primary Health Care (its interim is out today) bid for Symbion tomorrow, and Friday is the deadline for an announcement on the refinancing of the Centro Properties Group.
The AMP's Dr Shane Oliver says "overall profit growth is likely to come in around 8%, which is well down on growth of around 19% a year ago with cost pressures, the US downturn and the impact of the strong $A being the major drags on profit growth".
In the US earnings are expected from General Motors, Coca-Cola, Clear Channel and Applied Materials.
MONDAY:
Reserve Bank Monetary Policy Statement; interim profits from United Group, Ansell, Ridley Corp, Amcor and Pharmaxis; Primary Health Care interim; ANZ Jobs Survey for January. David Jones second quarter and first half sales and earnings guidance.
TUESDAY:
The ABS releases Housing Finance for December; interim profits from Cochlear, JB Hi-Fi and Mirvac; Federal parliament resumes; Primary Health Care bid for Symbion supposed to close; NAB January survey of Business Conditions; AWB AGM; Tower AGM in Auckland.
WEDNESDAY:
The ABS releases figures on the production of principal agricultural commodities for the 2006-07 year; the CBA interim; half yearly reports from Boral, Crane and Computershare; full year figures from Coca Cola Amatil; Rio Tinto 2007 full year results; 'Sorry' statement in Federal Parliament.
THURSDAY:
Labor Force figures for January; Lending Finance for Australia and Manufacturing Production for December from the ABS; interims from Leighton, Australand, PMP and ASX; AMP annual result; Lion Nathan AGM and trading update.
FRIDAY:
Interims from Allco Finance. Nick Scali, Wesfarmers, West Australian newspapers and Austero; full year figures from STW Communications; Deadline for Centro Properties refinancing.
