While not as dramatic as the falls in January and February, March saw China’s imports and exports once again drop, as the coronavirus pandemic continued to wreak havoc inside the country and on its major customers offshore
Exports fell by 6.6% in US dollar terms compared to March 2019, according to data released on Tuesday by the General Administration of Customs.
This followed a 17.2% slump in January and February which were combined by the Chinese government.
The March result was above the median forecast of analysts for a 13.9% slump from 2019.
Imports did better, down by just 0.9% from a year ago after having dropped 4% in January and February combined. The median forecast of analysts was for a fall of 9.5% in US dollar terms.
Overall in the first quarter of 2020, China’s exports dropped 13.3%, with imports down 2.9%.
The country’s March trade surplus was $19.9 billion, down sharply from the $US31.5 billion in the same month of the previous year. It was higher though than the $US 7.1 billion for January and February combined.
China’s trade surplus with the U.S. narrowed to $US15.32 billion in March from $US25.37 billion in January and February,
Now for the big worry going forward – a dearth of foreign orders and weak domestic demand will make it harder to sustain any real growth in exports.
With the end of the lockdowns that shut most Chinese manufacturers in February, most Chinese exporters had resumed at least 70% of their production capacity by the end of March, according to the Ministry of Commerce.
But economists say that while factories have re-opened, the impact of the pandemic on the US, Europe and major customers in Asia such as South Korea and Japan will make life tough for the rest of the year for Chinese companies large and small.
Preliminary trade data from South Korea for April confirm that.
Exports for the first 10 days of April dropped 18.6% from the same period a year earlier, a sharp reversal from the 20.8% surge seen in March.
Imports into Asia’s fourth-largest economy fell 13%, compared to a 14.5% rise in the previous month, according to Korea Customs Service data. Shipments to China, South Korea’s biggest trading partner, fell 10.2%.
