Another week when the health of national and global economies will be shown in a series of data releases and reports.
There’s second-quarter GDP data for Japan, the UK, Russia, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Singapore – all will be grim.
The US, China, Eurozone, UK, and India release industrial production updates – China’s is the most important, especially for Australia.
US and China retail sales data will be released (along with urban investment figures for China), while the UK updates on the current jobs situation.
In New Zealand, the central bank is expected to remain on hold as the country’s election campaign gets underway.
In Australia, the June 30 earnings season accelerates while America’s is near the end. More than 600 companies are due to report around the world this week.
In Australia, the July Labour Force and jobless numbers on Thursday will dominate the news, along with the Wage Price Index for the June quarter as well as the NAB business and Westpac consumer confidence surveys.
On Friday RBA governor Philip Lowe makes his regular appearance before the House of Reps Economics Committee. He will be questioned on the bank’s latest views of the economy as outlined in last Friday’s Statement On Monetary Policy.
It’s gloomy.
The labour force data for July on Thursday is expected to show just a 25,000 rise in employment for the month. The AMP’s Chief Economist, Dr. Shane Oliver says dominating the data will be the weakness driven mainly by Victoria with payroll jobs data which point to a stalling in the jobs recovery.
“This combined with a further increase in participation to 64.5% (as JobSeeker recipients have to look for work again) will likely push the unemployment rate up to 8.1% (albeit with effective unemployment still being around 11%),“ Dr Oliver wrote.
The ABS’s weekly payroll jobs data is out tomorrow and will be a pointer to Thursday’s report and will in fact ) provide some guide as to how the jobs market is faring into late July.
The July NAB business survey tomorrow is expected to show some slippage of the recovery in conditions and confidence reflecting the lockdown in Melbourne, and the Victorian situation will likely also see a further decline in consumer confidence for August as measured by the Westpac/MI survey (Wednesday).
Dr. Oliver says the June quarter wages growth (Wednesday) is likely to have softened to 0.3% quarter on quarter or 1.9% year on year.
The first serious week of the June 30 reporting season starts today – watch for some big write-downs and losses (See separate story).
In the US, July’s retail sales will show a rise as will industrial production on Friday butDr Oliver says core US CPI inflation on Wednesday will show a further fall to just over 1% as disinflation tightens its grip.
The US and China are also scheduled to review their Phase One trade deal in mid-August.
Speaking of China, the country’s final major data drop for the month happens on Thursday with the release of July data on industrial production, urban investment, and retail sales. All are forecast to show small improvements.
The rising trade tensions with Donald Trump’s US administration though will impact Chinese markets.
Today sees consumer price inflation for July with a small improvement while producer price deflation will also ease, but remain negative.
