It won’t be as dramatic a week this week as last week was with four leading central banks meeting; our bank’s signalling a rate cut as soon as next month, and then the Europeans ruling out a rate rise sparking a major rise in the value of the US dollar, which was already on the turn.
Our dollar was pummelled, which will be a major theme here this week, along with June 30 companies reporting season hitting full speed.
Oil prices should be watched closely to see if the fighting in Georgia and South Ossetia involving Russian troops, stops the recent fall in world prices (it had no impact Friday).
And, as usual, there will be some important statistics to worry about, including US consumer price inflation, European economic growth and here the third Statement on Monetary Policy from the RBA, which is out later today.
It will be be watched closely for more clues about how strong the Bank’s new found rate easing bias is.
The Bank will flesh out last Tuesday’s post rate decision statement from RBA Governor, Glenn Stevens.
The AMP’s chief economist, Dr Shane Oliver says "Our assessment is that the RBA is likely to indicate increasing downside risks to its growth forecasts and increased confidence that inflation will fall which will help reinforce expectations for interest rate cuts in the months ahead, albeit maybe not to the same degree as that already priced into the money markets".
Of interest to the RBA will be this week’s wages price index and average weekly earnings figures for the June and May quarters respectively.
The consumer confidence figures from the Westpac-Melbourne Institute will be released and the latest monthly survey on business confidence from the National Australia Bank. Both should show a small gain perhaps in confidence on the back of the downturn in oil and petrol prices and last week’s talk about lowering interest rates.
The June half profit reporting season will also start to gather pace with stocks such as Cochlear, the Commonwealth Bank, Computershare, Telstra, Leighton and Stockland due to report.
The CBA, Telstra and Stockland will be the most watched: the CBA for banking and if it has missed most of the bad news, like Westpac revealed on Friday; Telstra because it has so far escaped most of the chat about poor results as it is not in finance, or resources; and Stockland which, of the major property investors, has so far been silent on what’s been happening to its business from the slump in financial engineering and geared property sectors.
The AMP expects profit growth for 2007-08 to have come in pretty weak at around +3%, down from +15% in the previous financial year.
According to Dr Oliver the economic backdrop to this reporting season is the toughest since 2000-01 as growth has slowed sharply and costs have picked up.
"All sectors, including resources which have been hit by rising costs, are likely to report soft results for 2007-08.
"However, while the results are unlikely to be the disaster the market is currently priced for after its 30% slump from last year’s high, the focus is likely to be on the outlook statements from companies and these are likely to be disappointing.
"While market expectations for 60% growth from resources in 2008-09 are reasonable given the latest surge in coal and iron ore prices, consensus expectations for 5 to 10% growth in the rest of the market are likely way too strong and will be revised down.
"The Commonwealth Bank’s result will likely be a key focus given the increase in debt provisioning at NAB and ANZ recently."
In the US, data for the trade balance, retail sales, consumer prices, consumer sentiment, industrial production and a couple of business surveys are due for release.
The retail sales figures will be watched closely to see if the spate of disappointing reports last week from leading chains on July growth reflects the entire retailing sector’s performance for the month.
Wal-Mart’s latest quarterly earnings and more retailed commentary also leads off a string of financial reports from the sector, which will help reinforce the message from the retail sales numbers.
US consumer prices rose 5% (annual rate) in June. Any advance on that will get markets a bit anxious, even though the Fed ruled out a rate rise (while warning of the risks from higher inflation).
It also ruled out a rate cut to further soften the downside risks to growth, which in the minds of many analysts, remains the bigger of the two dangers to the US.
Reuters and Bloomberg polls top a US CPI headline rate of 0.4% for July, compared with June’s 1.1% for June alone.
The CPI is out Thursday night in the US, our time. Tuesday sees the US trade deficit for June, Wednesday retail sales and import prices and business inventories (for June) and on Friday consumer confidence and industrial production.
MONDAY:
The Reserve Bank releases its third Monetary Policy Statement of the year at 11.30 am; The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) releases Lending Finance figures for June. Final profits from United Group, Crane Group, Bendigo Bank; Dexion interim; Housing Industry Association (HIA) June quarter national and state outlook
TUESDAY:
Final profits from Bradken, Cochlear and Worleyparsons; interims from APN News and Media and Australian Agricultural Co; National Australia Bank monthly business conditions survey; St George Bank briefing; Singapore Telecom/Optus first quarter results.
WEDNESDAY:
The ABS releases the Labour Price Index for the June quarter; final results from Telstra, the Commonwealth Bank, Fletcher Building, Computershare, Specialty Fashion group, Talent2, Boom Logistics and Pharmaxis; Westpac/Melbourn
