Dr Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy & Chief Economist at AMP, discusses developments in investment markets over the past week, economic activity trackers, major global economic events and Australian economic events.
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James Powell – General Manager – Investor Relations, Corporate Affairs and Sustainability – Rural Funds Group (ASX:RFF) is Australia's first ASX-listed diversified agricultural Real Estate Investment Trust.
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James Walker – Chair – BluGlass (ASX:BLG) delivers cutting-edge custom laser and LED development across the industrial, defence, display, and scientific markets.
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BlueScope Steel (ASX:BSL) has, at long last, downgraded first-half earnings, weeks after US-based steel rivals revealed cuts to their forecasts and actuals due to weakening margins and spreads as demand softens.
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In August, Chinese investors recorded their highest selling activity of US bonds and stocks in four years, amounting to $21.2 billion, with a focus on treasuries and equities, as per data from the US Department of the Treasury. Additionally, Japanese investors have also been selling US securities, driven by the weakening yen and the strategy to bolster their currency by selling treasuries for dollars.
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A snapshot of the stocks on the move, featuring Way2VAT (ASX:W2V), Liontown Resources (ASX:LTR) and Chimeric Therapeutics (ASX:CHM).
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With Newcrest Mining (ASX:NCM) set to be acquired by Newmont in the coming weeks, Evolution Mining (ASX:EVN)and Northern Star (ASX:NST) emerge as the remaining local majors, gaining increasing attention from investors seeking direct exposure to gold and copper.
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In the September quarter, Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO) once again secured its position as the world's largest iron ore shipper. Meanwhile, Vale, its Brazilian rival, reclaimed its title as the largest miner for the three-month period.
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US 10-year bond yields came within a hair’s breadth of breaching the 5% level on Thursday, and gold futures prices moved closer to the $2,000 level after Fed Chair Jay Powell again underlined that the central bank would be “resolute” in its commitment to the 2% inflation target.
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The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) has scored a significant victory over Qantas as the airline called off its $611 million takeover of the smaller rival fly-in, fly-out operator, Alliance Aviation Services.
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According to media reports this morning, Liontown Resources (ASX:LTR) is in some trouble with funding, as evidenced by discussions of "emergency" equity and debt raises.
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Stocks slid on Thursday as Wall Street parsed commentary from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell while monitoring a key milestone for a closely followed bond yield.
Read MoreStocks slid on Thursday as Wall Street parsed commentary from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell while monitoring a key milestone for a closely followed bond yield.
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Liontown Resources (ASX:LTR) has secured a $1.13 billion funding package to complete its flagship Kathleen Valley lithium project, following the collapse of a $6.6 billion deal with Albemarle, the world's largest lithium group this week.
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Australia's benchmark index had its worst one-day performance in four weeks on Thursday. This decline was attributed to rising tensions in the Middle East and an unexpected drop in the jobless rate for September, which raised concerns among investors.
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A snapshot of the stocks on the move, featuring Terrain Minerals (ASX:TMX), Superior Resources (ASX:SPQ) and Strickland Metals (ASX:STK).
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The big four Australian banks are projecting various outcomes for the labor market: Commonwealth Bank (CBA) expects a 25,000 job gain with a higher unemployment rate of 3.8%, while National Australia Bank (NAB) forecasts a 30,000-job increase with unemployment at 3.7%. ANZ predicts a 20,000-job rise and steady unemployment at 3.7%, and Westpac anticipates a 20,000-job increase with no change in the unemployment rate, also at 3.7%.
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Standard Lithium Ltd. (TSXV:SLI) (NYSE American:SLI) (FRA:S5L), a leading player in the near-commercial lithium sector, has taken a significant step forward in its quest to revolutionise US lithium production.
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Tesla's results for the three months ending in September weren't impressive, especially when compared to Netflix, which pleasantly surprised the market. However, they managed to partially reverse the nearly 5% slide in the electric vehicle (EV) maker's shares during regular trading, with a modest 1.3% rebound by 8:30 am Sydney time.
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Netflix has once again defied gloomy analysts and investors by revealing a surge in subscriber numbers, thanks to the introduction of the ad-supported cheaper streaming option. The company also confirmed that price hikes are imminent.
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China's crude steel production plummeted to an eight-month low last month, as demand from the property and construction sectors remained feeble, keeping profit margins under pressure.
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Amidst growing tensions in the Middle East, safe-haven buying drove gold to an 11-week high on Wednesday, with the front-month Comex futures price nearing the $2,000 an ounce mark.
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Stocks dropped Wednesday as earnings season gained steam and Treasury yields climbed to multiyear highs.
Read MoreStocks dropped Wednesday as earnings season gained steam and Treasury yields climbed to multiyear highs.
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Whitehaven Coal (ASX:WHC) plans to acquire two Queensland coking coal mines from BHP and Mitsubishi, opting for a traditional layaway plan over modern equity/debt packages preferred by banks and corporate advisers.
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The new financing package for Liontown Resources (ASX:LTR) and its Kathleen Valley lithium mine in WA won't be known until Friday morning. The company requested its shares to be suspended on Wednesday.
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The Australian sharemarket increased in value on Wednesday, as China's gross domestic product (GDP) for July-September grew by 4.9% compared to the previous year.
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If China's economic performance in September and the September quarter were a school report card, it would have earned a bare pass mark of 50%, with the comment "Should be doing better."
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Well, Lithium Power International (ASX:LPI) was right when it described as “incorrect” a Bloomberg report suggesting a 50-cent-a-share offer from Codelco, the big state-owned Chilean copper miner.
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Shares in Credit Corp (ASX:CCP) plunged on Wednesday as the company shocked the market with news of a write-down in the carrying value of its US debt ledger business.
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Glencore has announced the closure of its copper mining operations in Mount Isa by the end of 2025, resulting in the loss of approximately 1,000 jobs. However, the company plans to maintain its refinery and smelters in North Queensland.
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BHP (ASX:BHP) has left its 2023-24 production guidance unchanged after making a solid start to the year in the three months to September 30.
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A snapshot of the stocks on the move, featuring Whitehaven Coal (ASX:WHC), Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals (ASX:PAR), Noxopharm (ASX:NOX) and Liontown Resources (ASX:LTR).
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Oil prices surged by up to 1.7% in early Asian trading following a deadly explosion at a Gaza hospital, heightening tensions in the Middle East ahead of US President Joe Biden's visit. A summit between Biden and leaders of Jordan, Egypt, and the Palestinian Authority was canceled as the US president seeks to prevent further escalation in the Israel-Hamas conflict.
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ARN Media and its partner, private equity firm Anchorage Capital Partners, will have to navigate key regulators before finalising their $225 million non-binding takeover offer for rival radio broadcaster Southern Cross Media (SCA).
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Whitehaven Coal (ASX:WHC) has halted trading in its shares until Friday as it finalises a substantial finance package to purchase BHP Mitsubishi Alliance's Daunia and Blackwater export coking coal mines in Queensland.
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Once again, the strength of consumer demand and buying has caught market economists and analysts off guard, resulting in a significant miss in their estimates of US retail sales for September.
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Nvidia has found itself in the crosshairs of expanded U.S. export controls on artificial intelligence (AI) semiconductor chips destined for China. This move by U.S. regulators could have significant implications for the company, which derives nearly one-fifth of its revenue from Chinese sales, according to its latest quarterly earnings report.
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DOWNLOAD RESEARCH REPORTSecures binding contract with Tier-1 OEMUS based anode active project gathers momentumMagnis Energy Technologies (MNS.ASX) – MNS is planning an anode active facility in the US and recently announced a binding, yet conditional, contract for the supply of anode active with Tesla. The contract is for a minimum 17.5kt/year with an option to purchase another 17.5t/year. Conditions precedent carry a tight development timeframe, with first production scheduled for February 2025. Site selection is underway and co-locating with an OEM on a brownfields site makes sense. Long lead items have been ordered and detailed engineering and design is expected to commence soon. |
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December Quarterly Report: Q2 FY2023Looking past the rain – there’s a rainbow.TerraCom released their operating results for the December quarter FY2023 with operating metrics being in line with our forecasts. Unseasonal rains in both Australia and South Africa contributed to operational and logistical issues across all mines, however guidance for annual production at Blair Athol is unaffected and highlights the quality of TerraCom’s skills in operational management. We continue to like the stable operating metrics around the company’s Australian operations and see potential for the South African operations to benefit from increased management focus given the rationalisation of operations following the closure of the Ubuntu mine. Corporate Connects overall financials remain unchanged as does our target price of $1.35 share. We maintain our forecast for a fully franked quarterly dividend of 7.5c/share to be paid in the March and June quarters of FY2023. |
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DOWNLOAD RESEARCH REPORTHigh performance synthetic anode & cathode materials Building a US based materials supply chainNOVONIX (ASX:NVX) – is scaling a synthetic anode materials plant in the US and piloting nickel rich cathode material in Canada. Why? China is dominant and growing – 100% of global natural anode and 68% of synthetic anode is refined in China. In short, China controls the global midstream battery chain by controlling 60% of chemical refining, 87% of anode manufacturing, 61% of cathode manufacturing and 73% of battery manufacturing. It is global battery supply and price domination at scale. |
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DOWNLOAD RESEARCH REPORTAntisense Therapeutics (ANP) Taking a Quick Approach to Long COVIDThis report looks at the results of a collaborative study Antisense undertook which looked at the largest protein expression database in Long COVID-19 patients who experienced neurologic symptoms well after the primary or acute SARS-CoV-2 infection was considered over (Groups 1 & 2, with 48 subjects Group 2 comprising a single patient from a different clinical site). The symptoms and others experienced by such patients result in a highly significant amount of illness, possibly more than all primary SARS-CoV-2 infections i.e COVID-19. |
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DOWNLOAD RESEARCH REPORT4Q reveals more focus on profit and cash flow• LBY’s 4Q FY22 quarterly activities update showed continued solid growth in top line metrics, albeit slowing, with GMV of NZ$203m (+26% on pcp) and income of NZ$12.1m (+23% on pcp).
• Net Transaction Margin (NTM) disappointed at -0.5%, due to further increase in credit losses from 4.0% to 4.9% of GMV. However, new fraud and credit risk management tools have seen losses recover materially with NTM back to 1.2% in March and LBY is confident of further recovery in coming months.
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DOWNLOAD RESEARCH REPORTSigns MOU with Ford Company – Kachi is now sold out!Lake Resources (LKE. ASX) – LKE has signed two non-binding MOU’s in the space of 10 days. Ford Company (Ford) has signed an MOU for ~25,000t/year and last week Hanwa, a Japanese commodity trader signed a MOU for up to 25,000t/year. Subject to execution, this is an amazing feat as Ford and Hanwa are prepared to enter into longer-term strategic partnerships with LKE. Commercial negotiations are still ongoing but are expected, especially if Ford & Hanwa inject new equity into LKE, to further de-risk the project financing & thus ensure LKE and Kachi are fully funded. |
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DOWNLOAD RESEARCH REPORTStrategic Vanadium-battery growth with Titanium & Iron earnings resiliencyTNG Ltd is an ASX-listed technology owner and developer of the world-class Mount Peake near-surface vanadiferous titanomagnetite deposit. To unlock value, TNG will concentrate ore from its central Northern Territory mine for processing through its patented TIVAN® process produce three premium quality revenue streams: hi-purity vanadium pentoxide (V2O5) for steel alloys and Vanadium Redox Flow batteries, a quality titanium pigment for paints and a premium steel input with >64%Fe iron ore fines. |
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Promising exploration and development update while SOP prices continue to riseTwo recent gravity surveys have considerably exceeded expectations and revealed potential for extensions to the existing MRE at Lake Throssell, plus a material growth opportunity at Lake Yeo. This reinforces the potential for a multi-decade, Tier-1 SOP production hub based around Lake Throssell. TMG is currently completing work towards the PFS due early 2023, including drilling to start in Q3 2022, evaporation trials and permitting activities. Results from these programs will support the PFS and any future resource upgrade. Benchmark SOP prices have risen to ~US$940/t due to recent geopolitical developments. The Oct 2021 Scoping Study assumed a SOP price of US$550/t and contained a sensitivity analysis showing every 10% increase in price drives a +$144m increase in the project NPV of $364m. The c.70% increase above the Scoping Study thus implies a project NPV of ~$1.4bn. |
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DOWNLOAD RESEARCH REPORTIncreasing our TargetDespite the lower realised oil and gas price, which fell by 5.4% and 19.7% respectively in August, Calima managed to show improvement in its key business metrics. We expect higher production in November due to the contribution by the new Thorsby wells which will be drilled in August/September which will see Calima meet its 2021 production guidance of 4,500 boe/d. |
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DOWNLOAD RESEARCH REPORTEmerging Financial Wealth Advisory GroupWT Financial Group Limited (WTL) is a growing diversified financial services company, founded in 2010 and listed on the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) in 2015. Its advice and product offerings are delivered primarily through a group of independent financial advisers operating as authorised representatives of WTL under its Wealth Today Pty Ltd (Wealth Today) and Sentry Group Pty Ltd (Sentry Group) dealer group operations. It has around 275 advisers across more than 200 financial advice practices Australia-wide. It also operates a direct-to-consumer operation under its Spring Financial Group brand. |
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DOWNLOAD RESEARCH REPORTImmutep Taking the Fight to CancerIn May 2021, Corporate Connect analyst Marc Sinatra published a comprehensive research report on ASX-listed biotech Immutep Ltd (ASX: IMM). So impressed was he with IMM that Corporate Connect felt it imperative that a follow-up report be released placing a valuation on the company, because the market was not seeing the vast potential of eftilagimod alpha (efti). This follow-up report has been released today. Using comparables, after adding cash back to their EV estimate and dividing by the total number of issued shares, Corporate Connect now places the fair value of an Immutep share at $A2.20. |
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DOWNLOAD RESEARCH REPORTMarket leading lifelong learning platform technology company in Australia and SE AsiaPayGroup (PYG) delivers multi-country BPO services and cloud SaaS HCM solutions, assisting companies to manage employees in multiple, complex jurisdictions. The company has many growth opportunities, including new clients, new jurisdictions, new products, partner expansion, and new revenue sources. PYG’s scalable business model allows operating leverage and with savings from in-housing third party technology, support margin expansion. |
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DOWNLOAD RESEARCH REPORTMarket leading lifelong learning platform technology company in Australia and SE AsiaOpenLearning (OLL) is a higher education technology company that operates a scalable online learning platform through a software-as-a-service (SaaS) business model and provides a global marketplace of high quality courses for learners of all levels. Its primary customers are education providers based in Australia and South-East Asia (primarily Malaysia). OLL started operations in Australia in 2012 and expanded to Malaysia in 2015, Singapore in 2018, and recently also Indonesia. |
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