Besides steel production, China’s real estate investment data is the other major statistic that smart local investors focus on because that has kept economic growth ticking over in recent years, and driving steel demand, which in turn drives demand for Australian iron ore, and increasingly coking coal. sz2

The oil bears continue to rule the roost globally as the US shale oil sector threatens the OPEC production cap accord, and the looming Fed rate rise unsettles investors at all levels.

All eyes will be on the US Federal Reserve this week as it prepares for its expected rate rise decision to be revealed early Thursday morning, Sydney time, but we should not forget the impact of the Dutch elections also on Wednesday (which could destabilise the eurozone if the worst possible result emerges), and the announcement, possibly on Tuesday, of the formal exit decision for Britain from the EU.

The second warmest February on record might have had more to do with the larger than expected rise in new jobs last month than the underlying health of the US economy.

Commodity prices weakened last week, driven by the 9% slide in oil prices and the impending US rate rise this week from the Fed.

The ASX will start flat to slightly higher this morning after trading ended slightly in the green on the futures market early Saturday.

China’s producer price growth returned to levels last seen eight years ago, while consumer inflation slid sharply thanks to the sudden arrival of the spring vegetable crop weeks ahead of schedule.

The slide in global oil prices continued overnight Thursday with US futures settling under $US50 a barrel for the first time in four months as investor worries about a continuing oversupply of crude and related products more than offset continuing solid economic news from some of the world’s major economies.

Chinese imports boomed in February, driven by higher prices for iron ore and oil, and by the comparative effect with a year ago when commodity prices were at or near multi year lows following the slump in late 2015 and early 2016.

Coal boom over.

China recorded a surprise trade deficit in February, its first in three years, thanks to a a surge in imports after the Lunar New Year holiday and an unexpected drop in exports.

Forget the small downgrade in China’s official GDP target to around 6.5%, and the maintaining of the inflation target at 3% and even plans to continue cutting surplus capacity in steel, coal and construction. Forget also a trimming of the growth in the defence budget, and talk about being four square behind globalisation.

Alarm bells should be sounding about Australian property lending – not because of the OECD’s warning about a possible fall in Australian house prices (which was all a bit over the top), but because weak management and lending standards have emerged in the historically dangerous area of commercial property, especially in apartments.

If the looming crack down on investor property lending in Australia isn’t enough, investors in the big four Australian banks face more pressure from an international source – the Reserve Bank of NZ (RBNZ) is planning a comprehensive review of capital requirements for the country’s banking system.

Move along, nothing to see here, come back in a month and there will be more of the same as the Reserve Bank kept its cash rate steady at 1.5% yesterday.

The world’s major oil ministers and industry leaders meet in the US city of Houston for the annual CERAWeek, the largest annual industry gathering in the Americas.

Yesterday’s rise in retail sales and dip in new job ads won’t have any impact on the thinking at the Reserve Bank board meeting later today. Interest rates will not move.

China has trimmed its 2017 growth target to around 6.5% and has revealed plans to again try and cut excess steel, coal mining and coal fired powered generating capacity.

While tomorrow’s Reserve Bank board meeting is the big news locally this week, nothing will happen and investors should really be watching Friday night’s February jobs report from the US and trying to glean what it means for next week’s two day meeting of the Federal Reserve.

The Reserve Bank board will leave Australian interest rates on hold when it meets tomorrow, the European Central Bank will do likewise on Thursday night, but it now looks almost certain that the US Federal Reserve will lift rates at the end of its two day meeting next week.

Gold futures lost ground on Friday, shedding more than 2% over the week, after US Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen made it clear an interest-rate increase was likely to be announced at the end of the central bank’s next meeting next week.

The ASX is looking at a rise of around 20 points this morning after Wall Street edged higher in late trading after a third US rate rise since late 2008 became more likely at next week’s two day meeting of the US Federal Reserve (see separate story).

A snap, crackle and pop debut for Snap could not stop investors selling off Wall Street a day after one of the strongest gains for months.

Talk about ignoring the elephant in the room. Investors pushed the Dow above 21,000 and boosted both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq in an enthusiastic reception for Donald Trump’s first presidential address to both houses of US Congress, but ignored the growing belief that the Fed will lift interest rates in two weeks time.

Boy didn’t the market get it wrong – the market forecast for the January trade surplus was put at $3.8 billion, when in fact it fell far short of that at $1.3 billion (which is still impressive).

Warren Buffett likes share buybacks and supports the idea was the tenor of many reports earlier this week of his comments in his annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders. But as usual many of those reports got it wrong, because they missed an important qualification Buffett added to his comments.

Something to boast about for most people, but not wage earners from the December quarter GDP figures and national accounts.