Our market will start the week with a small decline today, but the most immediate impact will be the weaker than expected survey of manufacturing activity in China last month.

With the exception of iron ore, October was mostly positive for commodities – or rather less negative than September and the quarter ending September 30, when there was a stampede out of the sector.

Outside of Australia and the Reserve Bank meeting tomorrow, the other major data release (and more important for global markets) is the US jobs figures and unemployment data for October to be released on Friday night, our time.

Two big decisions this week for Australia – both occurring tomorrow and both around the same time. At 2.30pm the Reserve Bank releases its latest interest rates decision and then an hour or so later, the Melbourne Cup will run and won.

Gold prices plunged sharply overnight, dropping during regular trading, and then extending their losses after hours as investors adjusted to the growing belief the US Federal Reserve will lift rates at its meeting in December.

ECB easing or no ECB easing, China rate cut or no rate cut, the US Federal Reserve will decide in December whether to lift rates. US markets say its a done deal, judging by the way they sold off this morning immediately after the central bank’s post meeting statement was issued, and then zoomed higher as they appreciated the statement has helped clarify the central bank’s intent.

If the RBA wants to cut rates, it has a lot more freedom than just the low inflation figures for the September quarter, released yesterday, to justify a cut.

Mixed results and receptions for two tech majors reporting in the US this morning after Wall Street closed – Twitter did well, bit not as well as investors had wanted to see, but Apple boomed, without much help from the new iPhone 6.

The puff ran out of the market rally in Australia yesterday and then spread to Europe and the US, so by the close of trading on Wall Street this morning, ‘wary’ would have been the best description for investor sentiment.

Look for another strong start to local trading today after markets ended trading in Europe and the US on Saturday morning on an upbeat note.

The latest quarterly profit report from Apple early Wednesday morning, our time, could very well change investor perceptions about the health of the US economy and the current reporting season after last Thursday’s trio of tech positive profit shocks from Amazon, Microsoft and Alphabet Inc (Google).

Focus will return to the US Federal Reserve this week on whether it will lift interest rates or leave them alone – which is the tip from most analysts.

Bank and oil and gas will dominate much of the thinking in local markets this week – an unlikely mix, but mutually exclusive for the moment.

Another five weak days for commodities last week, so will the hint of more spending by the European Central Bank and the 6th rate cut by China’s central bank reverse that trend today and for the rest of the week?

Sharemarkets will be surging this morning across Asia, starting in Australia, after European Central Bank (ECB) president Mario Draghi left the door wide open to adding more stimulus to the eurozone economy in December.

So which late slide will worry local investors more today – Wall Street’s last minute slip, or Shanghai’s much bigger slump?

Since Westpac’s gouging 0.20% rise in mortgage rates last week (on top of the 0.30% rise in investor home loan rates earlier), there has been an almost continuing run of predictions of a further rate cut by the Reserve Bank, starting as early as the November meeting on Melbourne Cup Day.