The coming week will again see a concentration on the Australian economy after the conflicting data released last week, along with the Reserve Bank’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged.

We are now in update territory for June 30 balancing companies, and it will be a real test of the resilience of corporate Australia if we can get away without a string of downgrades over the next month.

More confusion from the Chinese economy with a small fall in exports in May (which was better than a bigger decline forecast by the market) more than offset by a huge slide in imports.

A day after the surprisingly strong first quarter GDP figures surprised the markets, we had a cold dose of realism from substandard retail sales and a record trade deficit for April.

World iron ore prices jumped to a new three-month high overnight as data emerged that export of the mineral to China hit a record in May.

Thanks to Australian consumers and mining companies, there was no sign of a recession in the March quarter as the economy grew faster than expected.

As expected, the Reserve Bank left interest rates on hold yesterday and bowed to market pressure and left some guarded guidance on future possible rate movements – an omission from the May statement of Governor Glenn Stevens which saw the Aussie dollar race higher and top 81 cents in a surge of over-optimism.

The local stockmarket should start with a small gain this morning after the share price futures contract resisted a late slide on Wall Street to close up 17 points.

A quiet start to trading on the local stockmarket after the share price futures contract ended with a small gain overnight. But all eyes will be on the Reserve Bank, even though it won’t cut rates.

Don’t expect the Reserve Bank to cut interest rates at its June board meeting today. It wants to wait and see how the economy goes after the surprise cuts in February and May.

Stockmarkets will start June today as they finished it – a bit listless, a weather eye on the overstretched Chinese market, a growing belief in a US rate rise sometime this year, and increasing concern about the health of the Aussie economy which will be further tested this week.

Even more important data and central bank meetings for a number of countries in the coming week – which features the usual start of the month data dump globally in a host of countries, such as Australia.

The US dollar ended up being the biggest influence for commodity markets last week and in May.

The Aussie dollar fell under 77 US cents yesterday as the odds firmed that another interest rate cut was going to come sooner than later from the Reserve Bank because business investment is falling faster than previous thought.

Now this is a serious slide from China.

A stark warning yesterday (and an explanation as to why the major bank shares have lost value in the past month or so) from the second most powerful official at the Reserve Bank – risk in housing lending has risen and that’s concerning regulators.

Later today we will be told that the Australian investment boom is well and truly over with the release of March quarter capex data from the Bureau of Statistics.

The 100 point rally in the ASX 200 over the past couple of days will come to an end this morning after a widespread sell off in offshore financial markets triggered by a surge in the value of the US dollar.

Chinese stocks rallied for a fifth straight day yesterday as the country’s leadership produced confirmation of another round of big infrastructure deals.

The local sharemarket will be starting in the red this morning after US markets faded on Friday night after choppy trading for most of the session.

China’s stock market shrugged off fears in Hong Kong about some spectacular falls in the shares of former some former highflying companies and jumped more than 8%.