The Week Ahead
The Reserve Bank’s deliberations and new economic forecasts dominate the week here, along with some important economic data and the December reporting season which moves into a higher gear.
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Glimmer Of Hope For Goldbugs
There’s a glimmer of hope for the goldbugs – the tight rules on imports of the metal into India might be about to change from march onwards.
Read MoreTreasury Wines Tanks
Like a stone – that’s the best way to describe yesterday’s fall in the price of Treasury Wine Estates (TWE) shares after the company produced the widely expected downgrade – the second in around nine months and perhaps the biggest shock of all for what caused it – an attempt to reverse the discounting of the company’s best wines that had gone on for years.
Read MoreOrica Looks To Downsize
While outgoing Orica (ORI) chairman Peter Duncan told shareholders at his last annual meeting yesterday of his "disappointment" over the group’s first fall in underlying profit in 12 years in 2012-13, he and CEO Ian Smith also told the meeting that the company is looking to correct that via a review of its non-mining chemical businesses – a move that includes quitting them.
Read MoreFortescue Weathers Two Storms
Bad weather may have hurt Fortescue’s (FMG) prospects for better than forecast shipments of iron ore in the year to June, but yesterday the company had to ride out a small storm on the market when the nervous nellies took fright at the news and briefly sold down the shares.
Read MoreBeach Joins Oil & Gas Surge
First we had Oil Search (OSH), then Drillsearch Energy (DLS), now Beach Energy (BPT) has lifted its production guidance for the year in what is turning out to be a run of positives for the smaller end of the oil and gas sector.
Read MoreNZ Sits On Rates
And across the Tasman this morning, the Reserve Bank of NZ kept its key interest rate steady on 2.5%, but left a big hint that a rise is very close.
Read MoreEmbattled Forge Up For Sale
Troubled Perth-based engineering group Forge Group (FGE) has put itself up for sale, as it has confirmed a worsening financial state with a loss of up to $25 million for the year to June because of huge losses on two dud power station contracts in Queensland and NSW.
Read MoreDrillsearch Joins Oil Search In 2014 Upgrades
Drillsearch Energy (DLS) yesterday lifted its guidance for annual production by around 30% and saw its share price jump by more than 11% at one stage during trading.
Read MoreFed Cuts, US Markets Tank
Predictably US markets didn’t like the news that the Fed sees the American economy continuing to improve to the point where it was able to cut another $US10 billion from its quantitative easing program.
Read MoreAnother Downgrade Looms For Treasury Wines
And is there another pounding coming for struggling wine group Treasury Wine Estates (TWE)?
Read MoreBoral’s Good News, Bad News Earnings Guidance
And building products group Boral (BLD) produced a mixed update yesterday – a sharply higher first half profit and a warning of a weaker second half.
Read MoreSurprise Lift In Business Conditions
After all the moaning and groaning from various parts of business (large and small) over Christmas and the New Year, it was a surprise to see that the National Australia Bank’s first business survey of the year has revealed a sharp improvement in business conditions.
Read MoreJB Hi-Fi Bucks Retail Trend
If you Google JB Hi-Fi (JBH) you find that a year ago and then around in May of 2013, the company produced earnings updates on the upside.
Read MoreEmerging Markets Sell Off To Hit Steel Prospects?
Global iron ore prices continue to ease and seem to be drifting towards the $US120 a tonne mark as fears about the health of emerging economies (which make up six of the world’s top 10 steel producers) and especially the Chinese economy, grow among investors.
Read MoreThe Week Ahead
The health of emerging markets dominate the rest of the week and the market driven fear of traders will mean that much of the week’s news from other areas (economic data, corporate results and the like) will be overshadowed by the clamour of bears shorting currencies and stocks from countries such as Russia, China (via the Aussie dollar), Turkey, Brazil, India and so on.
Read MoreGlobal Shares Down On Emerging Market Fears
With such a long menu of possible catalysts, it was probably a good thing that the ASX was closed yesterday given the size of the falls across Asia in the wake of Friday’s slide on Wall Street.
Read MoreNewcrest Claims A Big Improvement
So can you trust Newcrest Mining (NCM), the perennial underachiever of Australian mining, no make it Australian investing, since it took over Lihir several years ago?
Read MoreOne Small Dip In China Graph Shakes Markets
Investors, large and small were concerned, the bears chortled with glee and the few bulls cowered as markets fell across Asia, Europe and the US following the weaker than expected ‘flash’ report on the health of Chinese manufacturing.
Read MoreIAG Revises Full Year Guidance
There’s nothing like a mild spring and summer (so far) to improve the earnings outlook for an Australian insurer. No floods, few storms, but some nasty loss-generating fires, the absence of major quakes in New Zealand and Asia and good weather (which means fewer car crashes), and so it is with Insurance Australia Group (IAG).
Read MoreInflation Up, But Rates Won’t Move
The Aussie dollar took off after yesterday’s stronger than expected rise in inflation in the December quarter, jumping more than half a cent to around 88.88 USc overnight.
Read MoreAFIC’s Overweight Bank Position
If the big four banks fail to repeat their great 2013 performance in 2014, then it will pay to know where the impact among the listed investment companies (LIC) will be hit.
Read MoreIron Ore Weakness Overshadows BHP Result
So with investors here and offshore in a sour mood about China, commodities and emerging markets, it’s no wonder that the continuing weakness in iron ore prices made for a difficult day for BHP Billiton (BHP) yesterday after it reported its December quarter and half year production figures.
Read MoreNo Surprises From Australian CPI Expected
Today brings the Consumer Price Index data for the December quarter and despite all the thousands of words written about it, the report won’t have any impact on interest rates or Reserve Bank thinking.
Read MoreGUD Meets Downgraded Guidance, Slashes Dividend
It was no wonder one of Australia’s biggest investors, Australian Foundation (AFI), sold down its stake in GUD Holdings (GUD) in the December half year after GUD yesterday produced a very weak interim report as its key Sunbeam division got caught up in the sluggish retailing environment and the still high value of the Aussie dollar.
Read MoreFletcher Building Grabs Former CBA Boss
Fletcher Building (FBU) seems to have found a new chairman to replace Ralph Waters who steps down later this year.
Read MoreWhat For The Banks In 2014?
Around mid-February is when the tone for the Australian stock market for 2014 will be set, that’s when the Commonwealth Bank (CBA) reveals its interim result and dividend, and we get the now usual first quarter updates from its peers the NAB, Westpac (WBC) and ANZ.
Read MoreFlatlining Chinese GDP Data A Bit Of An Anti-Climax
No real surprises from the December quarter and 2013 GDP data for China, according to the preliminary figures released yesterday. In fact it was something of an anti climax.
Read MoreNot So Super Retail
The most important update so far for 2013-14 came last Friday in the surprise news from Super Retail Group (SUL) that earnings and sales would be lower and slower than previously expected, thanks to a combination of reasons including reluctant consumers and some IT problems in the merging of the group’s existing business with the Rebel sportsgood operations bought over a year ago.
Read MoreMarket Melts Despite Dealflow
Wall Street may have had its worst day in 2014 on Monday, but that wasn’t the fault of dealmakers in Asia and the US with over $US80 billion of deals announced by the likes of Charter/Liberty Media (controlled by billionaire media mogul, John Malone), Google and Suntory of Japan.
Read MoreCommodities Weak In 2013, Will 2014 Be Any Better?
Gold is the headline commodity for many investors – but in reality its importance has drifted towards the margins these days, still interesting, but more US Tea Party than mainstream.
Read More2014: Deja Vu All Over Again?
Many of the forecasts for Australia in 2014 assume a continuation to the ‘tapering’ of the $US85 billion a year of spending by the US Federal Reserve.
Read MoreLocal Market Still Sliding
It wasn’t just an Australian sell-off on the market yesterday, although it felt like it in the afternoon, raising the question about the standing of our market in the eyes of offshore investors, especially in the US.
Read MoreVirgin Raises Its Money, No Help For Qantas
Well, bad luck Qantas (QAN), the failure of the $350 million issue by Virgin Australia (VAH) to get strong support from small shareholders has all but condemned Qantas to look for ways of raising new capital it needs other than tapping its huge base of small shareholders.
Read MoreA Reshaped Deal Coming From Westfield?
Will the Lowy family and its Westfield Group blink and be forced the change the terms of its proposed separation?
Read MoreNew Zealand To Boom In 2014
The New Zealand economy is going to boom in 2014 and into 2015 thanks to a combination of a 40-year high for the country’s terms of trade and the spreading building boom in Christchurch, Auckland and now Wellington.
Read MoreHolden News Fails To Dent Listed Car Dealers
A mixed initial reaction from investors to the Holden closure news yesterday with one listed dealer’s shares falling and the other’s rising.
Read MoreOZ Minerals Miserable 2013 Continues
What a rotten Christmas present for those long suffering shareholders in OZ Minerals (OZL), which is now rivaling Newcrest Mining (NCM) as the bad news stock for mining investors for 2013.
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