Well, there’ll be quite a few things influencing the week ahead and they won’t be actual events.

The credit crunch has weakened the world economy, but not led to a global recession; but there’s a growing risk that the surging oil price will, according to the AMP’s chief strategist and economist, Dr Shane Oliver.

Figures out later today will give a hint of the impact of the slowdown on employment, but not much.

Oil prices dropped $US4 a barrel to around $US134 a barrel, the Dow rose by just over half a per cent as blue chips held firm, but tech stocks fell and the broader market was flat.

It’s no wonder NZ Reserve Bank governor, Allan Bollard hinted last Thursday that New Zealand’s official interest rates would be cut later this year, even though inflation was expected peak around 4.7% for the Consumer Price Measure by September.

It’s not a reply to the weekend surge in oil prices, but China’s latest directive telling lenders to set aside more money to cut bank lending is probably the most effective move it can make, seeing it seems to be baulking at freeing up all commodity prices and won’t lift interest rates.

While the surge in oil prices set off a surge of concern around the world as prices jumped 16% last week, the US jobs figures for May have sent a chill through financial markets because they undermined the emerging suggestion in America that things economic were not as bad as all the forecasts were suggesting, especially those talking recession.

Oil, oil and more oil will be the focus this week for local and international markets, especially in the US where there’s a strong feeling the economy is doing as badly as many consumers think, not as some of the official figures might suggest.