The last time I wrote an Uber bearish note was in December 2015, providing an outlook for the start of 2016. In fact I wrote more than one bearish article warning investors of an imminent market correction and we all witnessed a serious market correction over January and early February.

Using the major indices as the only means to be long or short, will mean missing out on a significant amount of opportunities. Let’s take the S&P 500 for example. The index is literally still trading at the same levels it was eight weeks ago. So anyone using the index as a sole ground for being long or short or only trading the index will have missed out on great opportunities at the stock level.

Like all of us short sellers win and short sellers lose. Knowing when they will lose can be a very powerful timing tool to enter stocks that could experience a significant short covering squeeze, leading to amplified rallies in share prices as they all rush for the exits.

After a long break in Europe (debatable whether it was deserved) I have returned to some new and in cases stronger revelations. Firstly, I have been a bond bull for a very long-time and in this column I even expressed the view that US Treasuries were the lowest risk, highest probability trade in global markets 18 months ago, 12 months ago and 6 months ago.

Technical Analysis, when done right, can be very powerful as it can give us a snapshot of history and compare how different markets performed through various cycles. Through this we can often produce a playbook of how the future may unfold. Developing trading strategies and portfolios then follow which in theory (and fingers crossed) evolve into real profits.

Remember peak oil back in 2007/2008? The world was going to run out of oil. I know a man who was worth billions riding that wave and fell in love. Rode it all the way back down. Now the world is awash with oil and nothing to show for all those paper profits.

Last week I highlighted that as we approach the commonly volatile and weak period of May through to October hence – “sell in May and go away” – investors should begin to reduce risk in their portfolio and begin to rotate out of certain sectors that are vulnerable to an ever changing landscape.

Around 80% of the time markets and stocks actually move nowhere. They gyrate and consolidate and when they do rise or fall to new highs or lows, it actually occurs in a very small window of time. Take a look at any stock or index and you will see that the vast number of time spent doing nothing. One of the factors that contribute to this is seasonal. The old saying is “Sell in May and Go Away” and as we approach this typically weak period (or at the very least a period with no direction at all), markets have enjoyed a strong comeback from the dismal start to the year.

As a proprietary trader whose income solely relies on the accumulation of profits it is important to be able to continually find new trading opportunities AND profit for them. A great trading idea doesn’t necessarily translate into profits if it isn’t executed well. Yes in my earlier years (and even still now) I have had great trade ideas that were right, but I executed poorly and lost money.

I noted in my March 17 column of the ongoing downside risks for the US dollar against the Yen and how tentative it looked technically for another leg to the downside. The past week has seen further weakness that is also dragging the Nikkei lower. The same has occurred with the Euro rallying and now being a drag on European equity indices. The large exporters are suffering as their native currencies appreciate and this weighing on share prices.

The Federal Reserve has backed away from its projection of four rate hikes this year, something we failed to see possible given the state of the US economy. They now only believe there will be two rate hikes this year.

I use that definition everyday when I trade and when I talk to other traders when discussing markets and assessing the portfolio of our proprietary trading desk. Now it might seem an impossible outcome of how can one make money when their trade view is wrong but the reality it is not. It’s exactly the same as great athlete who can still win when not performing well.

I am sure most of you saw the 60 Minutes segment on the approaching housing collapse in Australia and then a similar article in the AFR on Thursday, referencing some on the ground research conducted by Jonathan Tepper of Variant Perception. The on-air segment and article highlighted some of the very key points that I had highlighted since December last year warning investors to exit the banks due to their extreme leverage to a decline in property values, volumes and construction activity. Moreover this slowdown is coming at a time.

Last year on 16th October, I noted that another factor that confirmed global equity markets were in the late stages of its bull market was the changing tide in gold. After being a serious gold bear for several years, the lack of further downside in the metal in the same way it had fallen in prior years suggested that the trend was potentially shifting.

Readers have probably grown tired of my consistent bearish outlook on markets since November 2015 where I warned about an impending market retreat of significant proportions. I warned that sky high prices for asset managers – like Magellan, Bankers Trust, Platinum, IOOF and Macquarie Bank – were all due for a serious drop. Blow me over, surprise, surprise they have declined almost 25% just in 2016.

It’s time for a potential bounce after the worst start for equity markets in history. Am I turning bullish? No way. We may see a very short-term tradeable bounce but on this rally I am adding to the vast array of short positions we have been accumulating as part of our bearish strategy for the first quarter of 2016, since late last year.

That’s right. Just me. Happy to be corrected but I sifted through all the research that comes across my desk and found almost nobody warning about the impending implosion in equities at the start of 2016. Not only that nobody had the foresight to tell readers what risks would be present for any potential sell off let alone tell you there would be a sell off. A major one. Worst start to the year for equities in history. C’mon fellas you can do better than that.

After calling for an early Xmas rally to come in October following the August correction, we have been highlighting the extensive risks that have been building across financial markets. Some of these risks have been apparent all year long – such as our long-held view that a GFC-style collapse emerging in junk bonds and emerging markets – but now, we see more and more reasons for investors to turn cautious and in reality, bearish.

For the past few months I have been warning about the next upcoming GFC-style collapse that will occur within the high yield corporate bond market (junk bonds) and emerging markets. It feels like I have written about nothing else.

After calling for a short covering rally in October – the best gains of the year – a few weeks ago we suggested the market rally was fizzling and that it was time to return to being cautious. As of last night that view still remains and we continue to see some significant changes in global financial markets that are worrisome for equity markets. As we noted in that column, equities have cornered themselves to a point where under a normal distribution of outcomes are at a high probability of falling.

I might ruffle a few feathers with today’s column but in all seriousness readers need to know why 95% of traders lose money. I witnessed it time and time again in the past few weeks and I think it’s time to tackle these issues head on. You could call it tough love.

It is always good to have a break from trading for a couple of weeks and return with a clear mind to be able to reassess the position and direction of financial markets. It is even better to take a break having been on the right side of market direction rather than take a break to nurse losses.

As investors and traders our goal is to profit from future moves in prices of the assets we buy or sell. We obviously all use different techniques to try and predict what these future moves will be which includes anything from astronomy to economics to cash flow to technical anlaysis and everything inbetween. Some like myself like to use a combination of few different techniques and placing greater or less emphasis on any one method, depends on what my actual investment goal is – short-term, long-term or even which asset class I am trading.

Since 2009 I have been an equity market bull and since the start of 2013 when the S&P 500 broke to a fresh record high, my bullishness was turned up to “11”. That also translated to being one of the biggest haters of gold, a useless commodity during times of intense asset price inflation. Asset price inflation and normal goods inflation are entirely different concepts and one doesn’t not necessarily lead to the other. Hence, we have seen the gold market littered with the corpses of gold bugs over the past 3 years. Their view of central bank stimulus eventually leading to an asset market collapse as rampant inflation drive gold into a major boom. They may be eventually correct but being right and making money are very separate things, and one doesn’t guarantee the other. Timing is everything.

The past few weeks we have been highlighting the similarities between 2011 and 2015 and those that have followed my column will be aware that with a slice of good luck (or do you make your own luck?) our predictions have been on the money.

Last week we highlighted the similarities between the performance of equity markets in 2011 with that of 2015 and it seems others this week have followed suit as I have read several articles comparing the two periods. Interestingly not all conclusions drawn were the same as mine with some chartists literally trying to follow the performance of 2015 to the day with that of 2011. Sorry guys it won’t work like that for reasons I gave in the article last week.

Last week we highlighted the ramifications of no Fed rate hike which would be further weakness in equity markets and all week markets have been on the decline. The price action reminded me very much of what occurred back then during the European debt crisis and the S&P 500 downgrading US debt causing an aggressive correction in global markets.

Overnight the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged in one of the most anticipated and closely watched meetings in some time. While the fact a change in rates was a 50:50 proposition the tone of the Fed statement accompanying the rate decision certainly was a surprise. A big surprise and a dangerous one in my opinion.

We have been discussing in recent weeks and months different market thematics, trends and flows that have been underway in an attempt to better understand and predict where financial markets are headed. One of our key points had been that in a late stage bull market we always see dispersion. That is, a breakdown in the bullish correlations that most sectors and asset classes have.

While the broader ASX 200 index has produced very little return over the past two years as miners have offset the gains seen in US dollar earners – even bank share prices are no better than two years ago – there is one area of the market that is beginning to froth. Micro-caps and in particular small miners, that are turning to buying technology companies in a bid to divert their business away from the resources collapse.

We have been discussing some global macro themes in recent months and what we are likely to see as a result of the Fed tightening rates. Obviously one major thematic which has been a firm trend over the past 18 months is the strength of the US dollar. The repercussions of this strength falls heavily on emerging market economies – Latin America, Asia and the Middle East.

Trading – particularly for a living – is without doubt one of the toughest occupations but also the most rewarding. Just look at the wealth of the top traders in the business! As a result of the sheer number of traders wanting to build their wealth consistently over time I am often asked what it takes to be a successful trader?

Gold has been on the back foot for several years now despite goldbugs consistently telling us to buy the precious metal as it is important hedge against inflation and the eventual demise in asset prices around the world. Both of these upcoming events were apparently meant to have occurred already due to the money printing of global central banks and as we have seen none of this has occurred.