Economics

The headlines from American retailing for the first quarter of 2024 told a very mixed picture – lots of cold, some hot, and little in between for many chains.

Gold had a fourth straight monthly gain in May, and its supporters think it will gain again in the coming days, particularly during the first trading week of June. This is trading off the back of the final inflation report for May, which was released on Friday and left us none the wiser about the course of price pressures, Fed interest rates, and bond yields.

So where do markets go on the first day of the new month (and for many companies, the final month of the second quarter and the 2023-24 financial year)?

Big week ahead for the Australian economy and markets. The first-quarter economic growth will be out midweek, but before then, the 2024 National Wage rise will be revealed later today (Monday).

Two interest rate moves are up for decision this week: US jobs data for May, Chinese trade data (also for May), and Australian economic growth for the first quarter.

After next Thursday, June 7, S&P Global has a seriously hard problem to resolve: does it start thinking about including Nvidia in the Dow, Wall Street's oldest and most prestigious index, and if they do, which among the 30 companies in it is to be dropped?

Brookfield, a Canadian investment giant, has set its sights on becoming the foremost player in Australia's renewable energy sector with a monumental $10 billion bid to acquire France’s Neoen.

The headline figures from Dell Technologies in its latest quarterly report, issued Thursday after hours, suggested AI and server 'boom,' but on closer scrutiny, investors shouted 'gloom, gloom' as there was a warning of margin pressures from a senior executive in a post-results briefing.

The US economy is still growing, and the job market appears to be solidly underpinned by low unemployment, according to the latest GDP and unemployment benefit claims.

Surging demand from AI and various other data needs for cloud computing and data centers is more than offsetting weakening investment from mining, which has traditionally been the driver of new private business capex in Australia.

Big Oil is shrinking as its options contract. Breathless reporting and market analysts trumpet takeovers in the oil and gas sector as something positive, but those doing the taking over can tell them that it is all defensive, not expansionary.

The International Monetary Fund has turned a bit bullish on China’s economic outlook.

The widespread autumnal rains in March and April across much of Eastern Australia helped bump inflation up for the second successive month in April.

Upon entering the port of Algeciras at Spain's southernmost tip, the facility's busyness is unmistakable. Nearly all cranes at the port’s two container terminals are in operation, moving containers on and off ships. Alonso Luque, CEO of TTI Algeciras, notes that they’ve had to turn away many requests for extra cargo due to limited capacity. Similarly, executives at TC3 in Morocco's Tanger Med port face comparable challenges.

Australian retail sales edged higher in April as consumers remained cautious in the face of high borrowing costs, rising rents, and other expenses, alongside confirmation that household consumption would not be adding to the first-quarter GDP growth data next week or the current second quarter.

According to Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai rising investment and persistently loose US fiscal policy are simultaneously pushing in the direction of higher long-term real interest rates.

In China, especially in property, it's always been a case of who you know and whether there is powerful government or Communist Party influence.

The European Central Bank has given its strongest sign yet that it will cut interest rates next week. In an interview with the Financial Times, ECB chief economist Philip Lane said, “Barring major surprises, at this point in time, there is enough in what we see to remove the top level of restriction” in the rate structure.

How quickly that "property rescue" move from the Chinese government was forgotten—announced Friday, May 17, dead by Friday, May 24, if last week's falls on Chinese and Hong Kong stock markets are any guide.

The big deal this week might be US inflation data and economic growth at the end of the week. Before then, though, there’s the Wednesday evening deadline in London for BHP and Anglo America to do a deal.

Did we miss the copper party? Was gold’s surge last week just another dash in the pan? Was the Fed the catalyst for the sell off in metals – or did traders realise that the boomlet was built on clay and easily undermined by a US central bank that seems to be getting a little cranky about ’sticky inflation’?

A week for going nowhere—that was last week. This week, however, it's a week for being on tenterhooks until 8:30 a.m. Washington time, when the last inflation data release of the month is due.

Time for oil to step back into the spotlight as prices ease, and the OPEC+ group’s next meeting this coming weekend has again raised the now-familiar question: 'will they raise or ease their production cap?'

Iron ore prices ended back over $US120 a tonne in Asian dealings on Friday as the market ignored another rise in portside stocks in the week to Thursday.

A surge in speculation by futures market traders has propelled the prices of metals like copper and gold to record highs, driven by funds betting on supply shortages and seeking to hedge against inflation.

West Australian Premier Roger Cook has outlined his vision for the state's economic future, emphasizing the pivotal role of its ore resources in driving a transition towards green steel production.

Wall Street equities, US bond markets, and commodities were swamped Thursday by data showing that the US economy is stronger than thought.

While Chile's SQM, the world’s second-biggest lithium player, has joined the list of companies in this key renewable metal to report a slump in sales revenues and weak to no earnings and losses for the three months to March 31, it is more upbeat about the rest of 2024 than the rotten results might suggest.