Diary: Economies of Scale
With the spectre of Covid Delta increasingly weighing on global economic and market activity, there’s a busy week of economic releases ahead, with UK and US inflation and local jobs data leading the way.
Read MoreWith the spectre of Covid Delta increasingly weighing on global economic and market activity, there’s a busy week of economic releases ahead, with UK and US inflation and local jobs data leading the way.
Read MoreThe equivocation inherent in the RBA’s qualitative easing policy announcement this week and the market’s response to it both highlight the fact that nobody is remotely sure where the economy goes from here.
Read MoreWhile generally satisfied, APRA has gently warned borrowers and lenders that the recent upsurge in Covid Delta infections and lockdowns could impact the still-improving health of the finance sector.
Read MoreA 13-year high for producer prices across China’s huge manufacturing sector in August has confirmed the failure of the government’s concerted effort to suppress the cost of key commodities and services.
Read MoreUnemployment looks certain to surge back over 5% after the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics payroll and wages data showed another drop in the first two weeks of August.
Read MoreA shift in the inflation landscape is underway as policymakers start to focus on more pressing concerns but what will the new regime look like? Darren Williams and Guy Bruten from AB share their thoughts.
Read MoreThe gathering economic impact from the continued lockdowns has seen the RBA taper its quantitative easing program of bond buying by 20%, but extend the program until at least mid-February.
Read MoreChina’s foreign trade unexpectedly picked up in August, as solid global demand offset some of the pressure from a resurgence of Covid Delta cases and supply bottlenecks across the country.
Read MoreA quiet week ahead starting with the US Labor Day holiday, with the Reserve Bank’s monetary policy decision tomorrow dominating local attention as well as August employment data on Thursday.
Read MoreThings have turned a bit grim of late with Delta cases both locally and abroad showing no signs of slowing. But, as AMP Capital’s Shane Oliver argues in his regular column, things aren’t as bad as they might seem.
Read MoreShortages of workers and computer chips are having a dramatic impact on the US economy – keeping inflation higher while shutting factories and forcing retailers to boost wages.
Read MoreThe Australian Bureau of Statistics revealed that Australia’s trade surplus hit a record in July as exports of iron ore, coal and liquefied natural gas all rose strongly. But is that the peak for the near future?
Read MoreABS lending finance data for July showed that borrower refinancing of housing loan commitments between lenders reached an all-time high of $17.2 billion after an adjusted monthly rise of 6.0%.
Read MoreFurther evidence that the Chinese economy’s sluggishness is deepening with another monthly survey showing the first contraction since early 2020.
Read MoreThe Australian economy grew 0.7% in the three months to June – but that was very old news made very much out of date by the continuing lockdowns in the two biggest states in the country.
Read MoreAnother sign that the Chinese economy is struggling as the latest outbreak of Covid hits confidence and drags the economy to its weakest state since the slump in the March quarter of 2020.
Read MoreTechnology is advancing at a rapid pace, exerting downward pressure on prices. But will this be enough to offset the impact of a new, higher-inflation regime? History suggests not necessarily.
Read MoreEconomists now think it less likely the Australian economy dipped into negative growth in the three months to June after the release of current account and government finance data on Tuesday.
Read MoreIt’s an end of month, start of month week with some important economic data such as the June quarter GDP figures for Australia and August unemployment for the US, among others.
Read MoreAs AMP’s Shane Oliver explains, Chinese economic growth is likely to be soft this half but policy easing and maybe a pause in some regulatory moves should allow a rebound next year.
Read MoreThe Australian national accounts and GDP figures are out next Wednesday and the data will be essentially redundant thanks to the worsening Covid delta outbreaks and lockdowns.
Read MoreMore of the same this week for markets here and offshore – earnings, Covid, China’s continuing crackdown on its best-performing parts of the economy, plus the $64k question: Will the Fed taper and, if so, when?
Read MoreData from the ABS that showed the nation’s jobless rate fell to a 13-year low is not a real reflection of the labour market as it was before the full impact of the current series of lockdowns hit.
Read MoreThe sudden outbreak of Covid Delta in the Auckland area and snap lockdown has forced the Reserve Bank of NZ to hold off lifting its key cash rate.
Read MoreConclusive evidence on Monday that China’s economy is slowing more rapidly at the same time as the government orders to its steel industry to cut production to reduce carbon emissions.
Read MoreNew Zealand holds centre stage this week for what many analysts think will be the first significant monetary policy move from any central bank with credibility – an interest rate rise.
Read MoreCentral banks are being forced to address many challenges. Given these tensions, will controlling inflation retain its overriding precedence? As priorities change, we believe inflation is on the verge of an important shift higher.
Read MoreChina’s July new car sales data underlines the growing importance of so-called New Energy Vehicles in supporting total car sales across the country at levels higher than they would otherwise be.
Read MoreNot much of a surprise that the National Australia Bank’s July business survey has revealed a sharp slide in confidence and conditions, thanks to the continued lockdowns around the country.
Read MoreAnother so-so monthly trade report from China – this time for the month of July – saw another solid rise in exports and imports but a small dip in the size of the surplus.
Read MoreA raft of various factors from corporate earnings to Covid Delta infection rates likely mean another challenging week for markets, which on Friday were in record-setting mode.
Read MoreAs we head further into the Delta-driven lockdowns in place across the country, RBA Governor Philip Lowe says he believes it is “quite unlikely” Australia will suffer a recession this year.
Read MoreWhile there was a trio of records for Australia’s trade account in Thursday’s July trade data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the continued Sydney lockdown is biting into the job market.
Read MoreAugust 18 looms as the next big date for the NZ economy with the country’s central bank now expected to reveal plans for a rate hike after unemployment fell sharply in the June quarter.
Read MoreThe 1.8% slide in June’s retail sales was confirmed yesterday as analysts forecast several more months of weak consumer activity because of the continued lockdowns.
Read MoreThe RBA held official interest rates at record low levels and kept its quantitative easing program unchanged in a modest reaction to the worsening lockdowns in Sydney and Southeast Queensland.
Read MoreThe ending of the HomeBuilder subsidy continued to hit the housing market in June, although both measures remain at historical highs on an end-of-financial-year basis.
Read MoreToday’s monetary policy meeting of the Reserve Bank would normally have been a low-key event, but the return of Covid and the associated lockdowns has changed all that.
Read MoreMajor events this week include the US jobs data for July on Friday, a continuation of the June 20 earnings season, and in Australia there’s the Reserve Bank’s August monetary policy meeting.
Read MoreWith Covid’s rampant delta variant seemingly taking hold across the globe, things seem pretty grim again. But, argues AMP Capital’s Shane Oliver, there are some reasons for optimism among the gloom.
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