Strong Retail Sales Data Now Yesterday’s News
Ahead of the dramatic impact of the new Covid variant on world markets Friday, October retail sales data showed Australian shoppers spent heavily once the Delta lockdowns were eased.
Read MoreEconomics
Upward Pressure Mounts as RBNZ Lifts Rates
As expected, the RBNZ yesterday lifted its key cash rate 0.25% to 0.75% which will be followed today by an similarly-anticipated decision by South Korea’s central bank to lift its key rate to 1%.
Read MoreThe Persistence of Transient Inflation
In this latest Russell Investments Q4 2021 Fixed Income Survey, 53 leading bond and currency managers considered valuations, expectations and outlooks for the coming months.
Read MorePrivate Sector Chips In as Wages Edge Higher
Continuing caps on wage rises by the Federal and some state governments mean the private sector had to lead the way in providing a small boost to wages growth in the year to September.
Read MoreRBA Holds its Nerve on Inflation Outlook
Despite some frantic tap dancing in various quarters about inflation, according to the Reserve Bank there remains little chance that official interest rates are going to rise before 2024.
Read MoreThe Tide of Inflation
Six months ago, Kardinia Capital wrote that inflation was on the horizon. They continue to field questions on the topic, so are revisiting it here with some of their current thoughts.
Read MoreChinese Walls Come Tumbling Down
It’s back to reality this week for China’s President Xi Jinping and the headache that is the Chinese economy – specifically property which is now threatening to spread to other sectors.
Read MoreEarnings Round-Up: Retailers Bring Season to a Close
Retailers dominate the final week of the US third quarter earnings season to be led by the industry majors, with the monthly sales report for October tomorrow also of huge interest.
Read MoreDiary: As the Call, So the Echo
Plenty going on in the week ahead, with the markets’ reactions to the weak outcome of the COP26 climate change conference in Glasgow and another upsurge in Covid Delta cases in 51 countries at the forefront.
Read MoreBiden Building Bridges and Getting Over Them
On Monday President Biden will sign into law his $US1 trillion federal infrastructure bill that will see years of spending and investments helping underpin US economic growth and corporate activity for years to come.
Read MoreJobs Data Better than it Looks, All Things Considered
October’s jobs report looked poor and the initial reaction treated it thus, but the adverse data points were really positives in that they happened as eastern states met their re-opening targets.
Read MoreUS Inflation Jumps Again but Wages Lag
US inflation jumped to levels not seen for 31 years in October as cost pressures tightened for more everyday items, but wages actually fell in real terms over the same period.
Read MoreSurging Coal Pushes Chinese PPI to 26-Year High
China’s CPI rose as forecast last month, but producer price inflation hit a 26-year high with a larger than expected annual rate of 13.5% as soaring coal prices slammed industry costs.
Read MoreNAB Survey Points to Better Times Ahead
Business conditions and confidence rose last month as lockdowns came to an end in both NSW and Victoria, according to the latest monthly survey of business from the National Australia Bank.
Read MoreGradually Removing Monetary Stimulus is More Good News than Bad
In this week’s Insight’s column, Dr Shane Oliver of the AMP argues that the march of central banks towards removing monetary stimulus is a positive rather than negative move for investment markets.
Read MoreOPEC+ Toes the Lines, BoE Surprises
Two news bites overnight Thursday – one a big surprise with the Bank of England not lifting interest rates, and the OPEC+ group adding 400,000 barrels a day to global production as expected.
Read MoreWeak Retail Sales Data Hints at GDP Pullback
Australian third quarter GDP looks almost certain to show a big fall when released in early December after retail sales saw a record slide in volume terms for the three months to September.
Read MoreCoal and LNG Help Offset Ore in Oz Trade Balance
The surge in coal and LNG prices in September partially offset the slide in iron ore prices and helped trim the expected big drop in the trade surplus for the month.
Read MoreStreet Takes Taper Decision in its Stride
Wall Street ended at new highs as investors accepted the long-awaited decision from the US Federal Reserve to start tightening monetary policy by reducing its bond buying program, starting this month.
Read MoreNZ Economy Too Strong for its Own Good
Growing signs of overheating in the New Zealand economy have increased the likelihood of another rate rise, with the country’s unemployment rate hitting a new multi-year low in the Sep quarter.
Read MoreRBA Holds Rates Steady, Abandons Yield Target
The RBA has dropped a key part of its monetary policy framework to support the Australian economy, but left in place the record low cash rate of 0.10% and bond purchase commitment.
Read MoreRare Bright Spot for China in Caixin Survey
The Caixin/Markit survey of Chinese manufacturing surprised yesterday with the best reading for four months, directly contradicting the official National Statistics Bureau survey on Sunday.
Read MoreEconomics Wrap: Facing the Inevitable
Tomorrow’s RBA meeting is big news here, but the Fed meeting and the much-tipped UK rate rise later in the week will also dominate should anything major come to pass.
Read MoreThe Yin and Yang of China’s Economic Dilemma
Power shortages, higher prices for commodities, and cuts to production forced on businesses all took their toll on the Chinese economy last month, pushing it deeper into contraction.
Read MoreThe End of the Super Cycle Bull Market in Bonds
In his regular Insights column, AMP Capital’s Dr Shane Oliver looks at the recent pullback in investment markets on the back of rising bond yields and renewed uncertainty regarding the outlook.
Read MoreInflationary Pullback Soothes the Savage Beasts for Now
Headline inflation fell sharply in the September quarter to an annual rate of 3% from the previous 3.8% reading that saw an outbreak of doomsaying about the cost of living and interest rates.
Read MoreHow Do Interest Rates Affect Stockmarkets?
With interest rates at all time lows around the world, Kevin Murphy from Schroders looks at how interest rates affect stockmarkets and what may happen in the event of fiscal tightening.
Read MoreChinese Economy Verging on Basket Case Territory
China’s economy turned ugly in the three months to September as growth weakened sharply, only serving to magnify concerns about problematic sectors such as steel and property.
Read MoreDay of Reckoning for Chinese Economy
A big day today for the Chinese economy and its growth path into 2022, with the release of key economic growth figures, plus investment, retail sales and industrial production data.
Read MoreRBA Acknowledges Climate Change Risk
RBA deputy governor Guy Debelle told a finance conference yesterday that climate change was a “first-order risk” to the system, with broad-ranging impacts on Australia including households and businesses.
Read MoreJobs Data Continues to Misdirect
Once again the pandemic, lockdowns and one-off government payments to those without work have made the monthly labour force report an inaccurate picture of just what is happening to jobs.
Read MoreAAAustralia Regaaains Top Credit Raaating
Despite all the naysayers in 2020, after 17 months Australia has regained a AAA credit rating with a stable outlook from all three major ratings groups – S&P Global, Moody’s and Fitch.
Read MoreDon’t Fear the Taper
As vaccination rates increase around the world, world economies appear to be stabilising. Economic output is around pre-pandemic levels, and signs of inflation and wage pressure have become a theme of 2021.
Read MoreSome Relief for China as Trade Surplus Widens
Export growth unexpectedly jumped more than forecast and import growth slowed more than expected in September, leaving China with yet another massive trade surplus.
Read MoreNAB Survey Shows Confidence Quick to Rebound
Despite the continuing lockdowns around most of the country, business confidence rebounded strongly in September to be well above its long-run average, after falling into negative territory in prior months.
Read MoreWhat if Interest Rates Stay Low Forever?
Given the current backdrop, GAM Investments’ Julian Howard suggests it is difficult to see how central bankers might ever return to what might be deemed a ‘normal’ interest rate environment.
Read MoreRBNZ Tightens Rates, APRA Tightens Rules
As expected, the Reserve Bank of NZ (RBNZ) has lifted its key interest rate; not so expected was APRA’s decision to introduce a small tightening of controls over housing finance.
Read MoreReserve Bank Holds Fire on Rates for Now
No change to monetary policy from Tuesday’s October meeting of the Reserve Bank board and no updates on mooted moves to control the surge in house prices, either.
Read MoreThe Bledisloe Cup of Interest Rates
Monetary policy in Australia and New Zealand will head in radically diametric directions this week as the two countries’ Reserve Banks look set to provide very different decisions and post-meeting statements.
Read MoreWhat Can Be Done to Improve Australian Housing Affordability?
With housing affordability in Australia worse than ever, AMP’s Dr Shane Oliver looks at the sector and some potential measures that might be taken to remedy a situation that is no longer cyclical, but chronic.
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