Review Of 2018, Outlook For 2019 – Another Cycle Extension
After the turmoil of 2018, the outlook for 2019 comes with greater than normal uncertainty. Here are the main things to keep an eye on in the year ahead.
Read MoreAfter the turmoil of 2018, the outlook for 2019 comes with greater than normal uncertainty. Here are the main things to keep an eye on in the year ahead.
Read MoreRetail sales rose a sedate 0.3% in October, as online spending hit a record high and spending rose on clothing and footwear but fell in cafes, restaurants, and takeaway food services.
Read MoreAustralia’s September quarter GDP has disappointed expectations by a long way, slowing sharply to just 0.3% from the June quarter (when it grew 0.9%), and well below expectations for a 0.6% rise.
Read MoreThere’s a possibility that the September quarter GDP, to be reported in the national accounts for the quarter out later this morning, could be better than expected.
Read MoreThe Reserve Bank of Australia has once again kept its key interest rate unchanged at the record low of 1.5%.
Read MoreMixed economic news yesterday ahead of the last Reserve Bank board meeting for the year later today.
Read MoreDonald Trump, the US president, has agreed to hold off on imposing higher tariffs on Chinese imports next year, after reaching a deal with Xi Jinping, China’s president, to slow the trade war afflicting both countries and rattling financial markets.
Read MoreAustralian companies, especially those outside the resources sector, have again lifted spending plans for the coming financial year.
Read MoreThe Reserve Bank of NZ has taken its foot off the throat of the country’s home mortgage sector with the news that it will ease some prudential controls from January 1 next year.
Read MoreBrexit, the fallout from the weekend’s G20 meeting in Argentina (and Donald Trump’s latest atrocity), an EU meeting on Sunday on Brexit, US interest rates, sliding oil prices, weak sharemarkets and the usual end of month statistics releases will dominate the week here and offshore.
Read MoreWhile offshore markets this week will be looking at weak oil prices, the US-China trade war, the health of US junk bonds, the Thanksgiving retailing assault, followed by Cyber Monday, here in Australia it’s the banks and the Hayne Royal Commission that will dominate the week’s news flow.
Read MoreUnemployment data on both a trend and seasonally adjusted basis was unambiguously solid in October, according to the Labour Force report from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).
Read MoreMore confusing signals from the Chinese economy that leave us none the wiser about its real state of health.
Read MoreWage rises were again slow, low and infrequent for millions of Australian workers in the three months to September as the 3.5% boost in the National Wage from July 1 saw the Wage Price Index rise the expected 0.6% in the quarter for an unconvincing annual rise of 2.3%.
Read MoreThe Reserve Bank won’t find any hidden surprises in the latest business survey from the National Australia Bank, nor will anyone else.
Read MoreWages, jobs, oil prices, and a febrile market sentiment will make for a difficult mix for local investors in the coming week.
Read MoreIt’s still too early to be sure that last month’s pullback in shares is over but we remain of the view that it was not the start of a deep bear market and that the trend in shares remains up.
Read MoreA brief look at important company events and economic data releases next week.
Read MoreAs expected no change from the Fed but the US central bank remains on track to lift interest rates at its final meeting of the year in mid-December.
Read MoreThe most crucial figures for Australia from China’s monthly trade reports are the level of imports of key commodities such as iron ore, coal and LNG and October saw some solid outcomes that belied reports of weaker levels of economic activity.
Read MoreFar from being impacted by the trade war with Donald Trump’s US administration, China has reported better-than-expected exports and imports for October.
Read MoreNew Zealand’s Reserve Bank has followed its Australian counterpart again in not moving its key interest rate.
Read MoreThe Reserve Bank of Australia opted to keep interest rates on hold at 1.5% at its second last meeting of the year yesterday and there won’t be a change until well into 2020, even though the central bank lifted its growth forecasts for the economy noticeably.
Read MoreFigures out yesterday showed more weakness in car sales, especially to private buyers in October, while job ads edged a touch higher last month after a couple of months of weakening activity.
Read MoreWhile the trade war and the threat from it remains real, Australia’s trade performance has in fact improved, not worsened in 2018, even as the Chinese economy cools.
Read MoreAs warned by the Reserve Bank earlier in the year, the September quarter Consumer Price Index came in low because of smaller than forecast rises in government charges, such as childcare costs, housing, and rent costs and electricity prices and despite a jump in fuel costs.
Read MoreIt will be an active week for investors here and around the world – above and beyond febrile markets.
Read MoreWhile the S&P 500 has yet to correct by 10% or more 75% of its component stocks have fallen that much, or worse. The weakness in the sharemarkets could, if it intensifies, see the Fed slow the pace of rate rises next year.
Read MoreContinue to watch what happens in the Chinese markets because more and more analysts think the uncertainty there is knocking other regions.
Read MoreLast week’s economic data dump shows that China’s huge economy is running in low gear and even as imports and exports continue at high levels. Domestic activity is starting to feel the weigh of weakening investment and the emerging distortions from the Trump tariff/trade war.
Read MoreIn Australia the noise this week will come from the political sphere, over in the US 160 S&P 500 companies are due to report while first reading of Q3 GDP data is due on Friday night our time.
Read MoreA brief look at important company events and economic data releases next week.
Read MoreChina’s third-quarter GDP and key September economic data will be released later today (Friday) as the country’s share markets sell off sharply.
Read MoreThe unemployment rate fell to new six-year lows in September as the jobs boom continued its slowdown.
Read MorePrices are likely to perform a lot better in Adelaide, Brisbane, Canberra & Hobart as they have not seen anything like the boom in Sydney & Melbourne.
Read MoreMore evidence that parts of the Chinese economy are slowing as sluggish demand takes hold with producer price inflation posting the slowest rise in five months in September.
Read MoreChina’s once rapidly growing new car market has slowed sharply in the past few months and sales are now falling as the sluggishness in the world’s second-biggest economy undermines demand in the sector hard.
Read MoreNo sign of any impact on the Trump trade war or the slowing economy on the performance of China’s major imports in September.
Read MoreChina’s trade data for September was again better than many analysts and others had expected, with an especially strong export performance with the US.
Read MoreAccording to the latest business survey from the National Australia Bank, economic activity and business conditions seemed to have stabilised, trimming what looked like a a month ago to be a slowdown that was coinciding with the downturn in the pace of job creation.
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