Stephen Koukoulas – Rates On Hold
The monthly meeting of the RBA Board on Tuesday is almost certain to leave official interest rates on hold at 1.5 per cent, a rate first reached in August 2016.
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Stephen Koukoulas – All Eyes On Inflation
It will all be about inflation. The March quarter consumer price index on Wednesday will be a dominant guiding force for the markets and the Reserve Bank of Australia.
Read MoreStephen Koukoulas – Jobs Data
Speaking of a muddling economy, next week sees the release of the all-important monthly labour force data. While the monthly numbers on employment are notoriously volatile, they will be a vital update on the lay of the economic land. With the economy yet to get sustained traction towards stronger growth, the readings for full time and part time jobs plus unemployment will be vital to judgments of just how strong (weak) the economy really is.
Read MoreStephen Koukoulas – House Prices
House prices – it’s the topic on everyone’s lips and it’s a topic where everyone has a view. Next week sees a factual update on house prices trends with the release of the Australian Bureau of Statistics house price series for the December quarter. There seems little doubt that prices rebounded strongly, especially in Melbourne and Sydney.
Read MoreStephen Koukoulas – Jobs Data
Amid the discussion about how strong or weak the Australian economy is, this week sees the release of the labour force data for February. The labour market encapsulates most critical undercurrents in the economy with information of total employment, the unemployment rate, the mix of full and part time employment and the level of underemployment throughout the whole economy.
Read MoreStephen Koukoulas – Retail Sales In Focus
The retail trade data for January are they key data next week. They will reveal a fulsome update on the sales period around Christmas/New Year. Recall that in December, retail sales recorded a shock 0.1 per cent decline which continued the broad trends of weaker retail sales growth.
Read MoreKohler’s Overview – Inside The GDP Numbers
The best and worst thing about this week’s national accounts was the strength in consumer spending – household consumption contributed 0.5% of the 1.1% GDP growth number for the December quarter.
Read MoreStephen Koukoulas – Is Australia In A Recession?
All will be revealed next Wednesday with the release of the December quarter GDP result. In the September quarter, GDP fell 0.5 per cent which opened the door for the notion of a recession, which is often defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth.
Read MoreAlan Kohler’s Overview
Australian Economy
Read MoreStephen Koukoulas – Capex Data
The big news next week is the release of private sector business investment data. Since the peak in 2011, business investment has been in free-fall, driven by the end of the mining investment boom. That said, even non-mining investment has been disappointing with zero growth in recent years. As a share of GDP, business investment has fallen from a peak of 19 per cent to 13 per cent and is likely to fall further before finding a floor.
Read MoreStephen Koukoulas – Employment Data
How strong is the labour market? Next week sees a further update on the data for full-time and part-time employment, unemployment, underemployment and workforce participation. Each of these sub-sets of the labour force data provides arguably the most important news on just how strong the economy really is. The RBA never adjusts interest rates without some reference to the health of labour market conditions.
Read MoreKohler’s Overview – China, The Belt and Road Initiative
In my The Money Café chat with James Kirby this week we were moaning about all the uncertainty and instability in Europe and America and I observed: “Thank goodness Australia’s future is tied to a communist dictatorship. Stability plus!”
Read MoreKohler’s Charts – US Unemployment Rate
The US jobs market will take centre stage with January labour market data out on Friday. The labour market data are critical in the monetary policy deliberations for the US Federal Reserve and as a result, markets focus on all parts of the report, including the change in jobs, wages and the unemployment rate.
Read MoreKohler’s Charts – Annual Underlying Inflation
This week, it’s all about inflation and how much the RBA will miss its target by.
Read MoreKohler’s Overview – Australian Economy
It’s pretty clear that US and global issues will dominate this year, but separately, there’s a big transition going on in Australia too.
Read MoreKohler’s Charts – Australia’s Federal Budget
The Treasurer, Scott Morrison, releases the Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO) this week, and if anything, there’s more pressure on him now than when he brought down the main budget in May.
Read MoreKohler’s Charts – Data Defies Trump Gloom
Last Tuesday, the President-elect Donald Trump declared that “we’re living through the greatest jobs theft in the history of the world”, which sits rather oddly with today’s chart, showing that the US is basically at full employment – that is, that the unemployment rate has arrived at the statistical “natural rate”.
Read MoreKohler’s Charts – Key Takeaways From The GDP Read
A couple of key points from this week’s national Accounts, which showed the first contraction in GDP since 2011.
Read MoreKohler’s Charts – National Accounts Week
It’s National Accounts week, and so far the signs are that GDP for the third quarter will be weak – not minus, but not much either.
Read MoreBrexit …… Smexit !!
The last five days have been stressful for Australian fund managers with Britain both voting to withdraw from the European Union and England handing the Wallabies an ignominious series defeat.
Read MoreQE In Europe & Reporting Season Wrap
European QE is finally here – better late than never. Importantly, Mario Draghi has left the door open to “do whatever it takes” as far as quantum goes. Euro currency debasement will likely be a feature for several years to restore competitiveness.
Read MoreSign-Off On QE
Janet Yellen stayed the course and ended QE as expected. Before we wave goodbye, let’s cover off on a few important indicators to watch going forward.
Read MoreItaly In Perspective & Why A Macro View Is Important For Investors
The recent economic developments in Europe are not unlike those that confronted investors in late 2007 and early 2008.
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