RBA Reiterates Need For Fiscal Support With Monetary Policy On Hold
No movement in the cash rate of 0.25% from the Reserve Bank’s June meeting yesterday as the bank also continues to target the three-year bond rate at 0.25%.
Read MoreEconomics
GDP In Focus: Has The Lucky Country Run Out Of Luck?
March quarter GDP data is out today and the question is can another solid trade surplus, a sharp rise in retail volumes and a lift in government spending offset the negative impact of weak wages, business investment, construction, and housing investment and the biggest fall in business inventories in six years?
Read MoreChina’s Unconvincing Rebound Continues
China’s huge manufacturing sector grew at a slower pace than forecast, underlining an uneven rebound from the slide in the first quarter.
Read MoreGDP In Focus With A Technical Recession No Longer A Certainty
The economy is front and centre this week in Australia with the monthly Reserve Bank meeting tomorrow, the March quarter national accounts and GDP figures on Wednesday and a string of important data releases for April and May.
Read MoreWeak Economic Data Rolls In As RBA Governor Warns On Virus “Shadow”
More evidence of the weakening outlook for the economy, despite the bullishness of stockmarket investors. At the same time Reserve Bank Governor, Philip Lowe added his view to the weak outlook, warning that the economy is not in good shape with more job losses very possible.
Read MoreChina Abandons GDP Growth Target On Slow Road To Recovery
China’s economy is in trouble, growth is uncertain even as the Communist Party claims victory over COVID-19. The party has recognised that by dropping its GDP target for the first time ever.
Read MoreMore U Than V: Treasury, RBA Sober On Economic ‘Snapback’
The idea of a strong, V-shaped economic recovery that has been the belief of the Federal Government, some economists and business media, seems to be fading as the COVID-19 driven slump in the wider economy seems to be worse than forecast in some areas.
Read MoreABS Confirms Retail Sales Carnage
Following a record 17.9% slide in retail sales for the month of April the final quarter of the June 30 year will be a rough one for Australia’s retailers.
Read MoreABS Payroll Data Hints At Tentative Recovery
A glimmer of light for the jobs market with signs of a small improvement from the payrolls data tracked by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) in early May.
Read MoreJapan Drops Into Recession As Economy Shrinks 3.4%
Japan has joined Italy and France in recession as growth in the world’s third-largest economy fell an annualised 3.4% in the March quarter.
Read MorePBOC Action Looms As China Closes Out April With More Mixed Data
So will China’s central bank drop a key interest rate this week for the second month in a row after the final batch of mixed economic data for April was released on Friday?
Read MoreThe Psychological Effects Of The Pandemic Are Likely Already Huge
These social, political, and economic changes can be grouped into four categories; new, accelerated, busted, and possible trends.
Read MoreUnemployment Rate Hits 6.2% But JobKeeper Masks A Reality Much Worse
The jobs data for April said it all – COVID-19 and the lockdowns imposed to control it across Australia by federal and state governments produced a terrible toll on jobs In April.
Read MoreThe Coming Surge In Australia’s Budget Deficit & Public Debt – Can We Afford It?
This note looks at our own projections for the budget deficit, the impact on Australia’s net public debt and whether it’s affordable.
Read MoreUK Growth Slumps But Worse Yet To Come
Britain got a taste of what’s to come on Wednesday with a big slump in first-quarter growth. The country’s Office for National Statistics (ONS) said the UK economy contracted 2% in the three months to March, thanks to a massive 5.8% slump in the month of March alone.
Read MoreCOVID Flattens Already Sluggish Wages Growth
Data yesterday confirmed that Australian salaries were falling even before the COVID-19 and associated lockdowns and job losses struck in late March.
Read MoreChina Factory Prices Plunge As Auto Sales Snap Slump
China’s factory prices fell at the sharpest rate in four years in April, further highlighting weakening industrial demand in the world’s second-largest economy as the coronavirus pandemic undermines global growth.
Read MoreKiwi Central Bank Doubles Down On QE
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has boosted its major support package by 90% to $NZ60 billion while both keeping the Official Cash Rate steady at 0.25%, and suggesting that it could be cut further.
Read MoreNAB Economists Warn Of Long Recovery Amid ‘Deeply Negative’ Conditions
According to the NAB, the economy will not bounce back strongly as many in government and business think – the bank’s economists reckon it won’t recover until 2022, and unemployment will still be 7% next year.
Read MoreASX Set For Jobs Test As RBA Warns On 10% Contraction
After America’s 20.5 million surge in jobless numbers, the focus for Australia this week will be on jobs data for April to be released on Thursday.
Read MoreChina’s Commodity Appetite Holds Up Despite Coronavirus
Imports into China fell heavily in April – down 14.2% from a year earlier, but not so imports of crude oil, coal, iron ore and copper which all rose from their March levels, and all four were stronger in the first four months of the year than in the same period in 2019.
Read MoreChina Exports Unexpectedly Rise While Imports Slump
In something of a surprise, China on Thursday reported exports rose 3.5% in April on a year earlier, completely confounding expectations for a 15.1% fall and helping to partially offset a hefty 14.2% drop in imports.
Read MoreTrade Surplus Balloons As Commodity Exports Power On
A solid growth in mineral exports and lower imports due to coronavirus-affected supply chains has resulted in Australia’s trade surplus more than doubling in March to a seasonally adjusted $10.6 billion.
Read MoreRecord Sales But Fortunes Diverge For Retailers
As expected retail sales were strong in March, despite the rapid spread of lockdowns designed to slow the COVID-19 pandemic but they ended up stronger than the first estimate issued a couple of weeks ago by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
Read MoreWhy Australia May Come Through This Period Of Global Misery Better Than Most
Three things suggest Australia looks likely to come through this period of global misery relatively well compared to many other countries.
Read MoreRBA Reverts To Wait & See Mode As Dim Economic Data Rolls In
No change in interest rates from the Reserve Bank – an expected outcome from the May meeting yesterday but we got more bad news about the damage being done to the economy by the COVID-19 related lockdowns.
Read MoreBuilding Approvals Surprise As Job Ads Crater
As has been expected job advertisements collapsed in April as lockdowns closed business across the economy and job support schemes emerged with delays to the actual handing out of money, but building approvals in March held up better than forecast, according to data released yesterday.
Read MoreThe Coronavirus Is Tearing At The Fragilities Of Italy And The Eurozone
Solutions to appease the crisis face political hurdles. A default or euro exit are possible.
Read MoreChina April Manufacturing Data Underwhelms
China’s services activity expanded at a faster pace in April, but business manufacturing seemingly slowed a touch, according to the two official surveys of activity across the world’s second-largest economy.
Read MoreJapanese Economy Heads Into Stormy Weather
Looking at the data released this week, you can understand why the Bank of Japan moved to an even easier monetary policy stance at its truncated one-day meeting on Monday.
Read MoreInflation Edges Higher But Well Contained Amid COVID Crisis
The March quarter’s Consumer Price Index gave us a hint of what might have been had the COVID-19 pandemic not hit, but the data also confirmed that apart from government-driven charges for tobacco and alcohol costs and private health care, the 0.3% quarter on quarter and 2.2% annual reading would have been much lower.
Read MoreUnpacking The Impacts Of COVID-19
An understanding of the government’s political motivations and willingness to keep the economy on life support may highlight investment opportunities.
Read MoreMoody’s Offers Upbeat Assessment On New Zealand Recovery
Optimism about New Zealand in the recovery from the current slump from global ratings agency Moody’s. The ratings group says NZ’s low Government debt puts it in a good position to navigate the recovery from the COVID-19 disruption.
Read MoreBank Of Japan Steps Up Stimulus
While the BOJ kept its interest rate targets unchanged, as had been widely expected, it pledged to buy an unlimited amount of bonds to keep borrowing costs low as the Abe government tries belatedly to spend its way out of the deepening economic pain from the coronavirus pandemic.
Read MoreCPI The Next Major Data Point To Detail COVID Impact
After weak indicators for Australian car sales, jobs and wages, but a strong showing for retail sales, it’s time for the release of one of the top tier bits of data – the quarterly consumer price index on Wednesday.
Read More“Simply Astonishing”: Global PMIs Reveal Extent Of Pandemic Decline
The dramatic plunge in economic activity across economies large and small became clearer on Thursday with the release of preliminary results of surveys of manufacturing and service sector activity with the readings plunging to record lows.
Read MoreRetail Sales Surge On Panic Buying
A rush to stockpile groceries and office supplies ahead of looming COVID-19 lockdown measures pushed retail turnover up by a monthly record of 8.2% in March.
Read MoreGloomy RBA Governor Warns On Worst Economic Hit In 90 Years
Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe has given the strongest (and gloomiest) forecasts for the looming hit to Australian economic activity from the COVID-19 pandemic and measures governments have taken to control its spread.
Read MoreChina Confirms Cut To Benchmark Lending Rate
As expected China cut its key loan prime rates (LPR) on Monday but that that still leaves the rates the highest among major economies.
Read MoreCoronavirus Brings China’s Golden Run Of Growth To A Dramatic End
The coronavirus pandemic has brought China’s extraordinary run of economic growth to an end — a stark reminder of the enormous task ahead for world leaders trying to restart the global economy.
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