Construction Activity Softens In March Quarter
Now, this isn’t what the Reserve Bank wanted to read about – the value of construction work in Australia falling for the third quarter in a row in the three months to March.
Read MoreNow, this isn’t what the Reserve Bank wanted to read about – the value of construction work in Australia falling for the third quarter in a row in the three months to March.
Read MoreA cut in official interest rates is on the cards after Reserve Bank governor, Philip Lowe made it clear the central bank’s attempts to lift inflation and cut unemployment will not be met on current policy settings.
Read MoreThe media concentrated on the rise in seasonally adjusted unemployment in April, but the real story was in the trend data where the growth in the labour market is back to levels last seen in August 2018.
Read MoreFurther evidence yesterday that wage growth continues to be weaker than the Reserve Bank, Federal government and most forecasters think.
Read MoreChina’s April trade data showed an economy softer than in March – exports were weaker than expected, imports a bit better, but yesterday we got more confirmation that China’s economic activity weakened last month (before the escalation in the US trade war at the start of last week) as growth in factory production, investment and retail sales all slowed.
Read MoreThe National Australia Bank has seen March’s surprise jump in business conditions in its monthly survey unwind in April – with conditions, confidence and forward orders now all below average as they were in February.
Read MoreAustralia will get two interest rate cuts this year totaling 0.50%, according to the second Statement of Monetary Policy for 2019 from the Reserve Bank.
Read MoreWhile attention was on yesterday’s Reserve Bank interest rate decision, the retail trade and trade account reports provided no further clarity on the health of the wider economy.
Read MoreThe ‘will they or won’t they’ speculation about the Reserve Bank cutting interest rates at its May monetary policy board meeting tomorrow will dominate this week in Australia.
Read MoreWhile the US Federal Reserve maintained its ‘wait’ and see’ stance on interest rates at this week’s two-day meeting in Washington, it revealed concerns about the slowing growth of inflation as it described the American economic activity and job gains as “solid”.
Read MoreAfter two months of small improvements, the latest surveys of Chinese manufacturing activity unexpectedly slowed noticeably in April, raising the question if the sector was starting another downturn at the start of the June quarter.
Read MoreSurprisingly weak Australian inflation has led to expectations the Reserve Bank will soon cut rates. But what’s driving low inflation? Is it really that bad? Why not just lower the inflation target? Will rate cuts help? And what does it mean for investors?
Read MoreThe first quarter GDP report, released on Friday suggests the American economy is not as solid as the 3.2% annual rate of growth suggests.
Read MoreWhile the RBA has made it clear the strength of the jobs market and its intersection with weak GDP remains its major area of interest, the sharp fall in consumer price inflation in the first three months of this year adds to the central bank’s policy dilemma.
Read MoreToday (Wednesday) sees the release of the first top tier economic report for the March quarter – the consumer inflation data (CPI) – ahead of the release of the first quarter GDP figures in early June.
Read MoreNo worries with the solid March jobs report, now for the March quarter Consumer Price Index report next Wednesday which is not expected to worry the central bank – but some headless chickens in the markets might take fright judging by some pre-Easter commentary.
Read MoreChina’s economic growth was a bit better than expected in the three months to March, with a stronger than forecast jump in production reported.
Read MoreThe Reserve Bank of Australia has given another hint yet at a possible interest rate cut later this year – but made it clear it won’t happen if the jobs market remains solid, something we will find out tomorrow in the March Labour Force data to be released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
Read MoreChina’s exports rebounded last month but imports dropped for the fourth month in a row as the trade war with the US stumbles onwards without any real sign of a deal.
Read MoreLabor’s higher tax and regulation agenda may be a negative for Australian assets, but this could be partly offset in the short term by more targeted fiscal stimulus.
Read MoreThe fading relevance of the ANZ Bank’s job ads series has again been illustrated with the March report released on Monday showing job vacancies are continuing to fall. They aren’t.
Read MoreAustralia racked up a record $4.801 billion trade surplus in February, it’s second in a row after a surplus of $4.351 billion in January.
Read MoreA bad miss by economists and analysts who completely underestimated the solid 0.8% rise in retail sales in February. It was the highest monthly rise since November 2017 when a rise of 1.3% was reported.
Read MoreThe 2019-20 Budget has a sensible focus on providing support to households at the same time as returning the budget to surplus. However, the actual fiscal stimulus is pretty modest – particularly for a pre-election budget – and comes with greater than normal uncertainty given the upcoming election.
Read MoreThe surge in commodity prices and our highest terms of trade since 2011, plus the still solid labour market have financed a return to surplus via higher taxes, but the reality is that the outlook for the economy remains mixed to lacklustre.
Read MoreOn the eve of the 2019-20 federal Budget, the National Australia Bank’s March survey of business conditions and confidence has picked up a small improvement in conditions.
Read MoreIn Australia this week will be all about iron ore prices, interest rates, a federal budget and the timing of the May federal election plus the usual start of month economic data.
Read MoreAnother small hint that the strength of the labour market might be fading, even though job vacancies hit another all-time high in the three months to February.
Read MoreThe Reserve Bank of NZ has shifted ground in its monetary policy stance dramatically, sending a strong tip that the next move in rates will be down.
Read MoreThe unemployment rate in February fell to another eight-year low of 4.9% yesterday, seasonally adjusted (and an unchanged 5% on the more accurate trend basis) according to the latest Labour Force report from the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
Read MoreA slower economy will see the US Federal Reserve sit on interest rates this year and start slowing the reduction of its huge balance sheet in May.
Read MoreThe Reserve Bank is now closer to a rate cut at any time since the last round in mid-2016 – the last was August of that year to the current cash rate of 1.5%.
Read MoreAnyone hoping for a clear guide as to the health of the Chinese economy from yesterday’s key data drop for January and February would have found just more confusion.
Read MoreGrowing support for higher taxes on the rich and greater government intervention in the economy suggest median voters have shifted to the left. Support for economic rationalist policies has fallen.
Read MoreJanuary lending data yesterday from the Australian Bureau of Statistics confirmed Reserve Bank figures at the end of February – demand and deals with investors have dried up, lending to owner-occupiers is slowing but loans to business are rising.
Read MoreAnother fall in business conditions and in confidence last month, according to the National Australia Bank’s business survey – with the weakening pushing the readings below long term average levels for the first time in months.
Read MoreOn the face of it, China’s trade figures for February were terrible – but don’t believe the hype because it wasn’t as bad as first thought.
Read MoreChina’s inflation readings for February at the weekend did nothing to quell the idea that the economy is trundling along in low gear.
Read MoreAustralia recorded its second largest trade surplus in history in January thanks to surging prices of copper, gold exports plus solid prices for LNG, iron ore and resilient prices for some types of coal, plus alumina.
Read MoreRetailers suffered another bleak month in January, with a weak start for 2019 after the surprise slide in Christmas sales.
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